A Modest Theory About Those Drones Over New Jersey

The welter of stories about unidentified drones over New York and New Jersey multiply, as do the myriad speculations. Thus far the narratives fall into three categories: private drones, those deployed by hostile foreign actors, those belonging to US authorities on a shadowy unacknowledged mission. The media has taken up the cause and the story has gone mainstream, with baffled officials furnishing no unified explanation – and President elect Trump weighing in. This installment of the column will add one more theory to the growing noise, but a theory grounded in full context, covering all the known facts and hopefully all the more plausible for that albeit.

To begin with, let us dismiss the private drone scenario quickly. Any private entity causing such panic would soon admit it and apologize for fear of being found out. The authorities via satellite would know whence they came, track them and reveal the facts. Next, the foreign actor theory – again, as Donald Trump says, the military or intelligence people would know. They might stay silent about it for fear of provoking a confrontation with a foreign power. The US is, sadly, prone to such deliberate passivity, the latest example being the Havana Syndrome findings by Congress which rejected the intelligence community’s previous report that the Syndrome doesn’t exist and no foreign power is responsible. The recent ad hoc Congressional Committee officially found that the Havana Syndrome is real and a foreign state is likely behind it.

So, back to the drones: do the authorities know that a foreign power is responsible for the drone outbreak but won’t say so? Timing is everything in such events. The Biden White House, as we have seen with aid spikes to Ukraine and granting permission to hit inside Russia, is not shy of adding last minute foreign policy complications to the incoming administration. Were it a hostile power, we would know all about who unleashed the drones. Which leaves the third and last category, that the drone phenomenon was a government initiative which authorities do not wish to acknowledge, a stealth operation that went public inadvertently. As this column is focused on geostrategic affairs, the possible explanation falls into its bailiwick.

Nobody has quite understood why the US and Germany refused, until recently, to allow Ukraine to use allied weapons to strike inside Russia (Germany still refuses). All manner of theories have swirled but nothing coherent obtained, other than an abiding fear of Russian retaliation. Yet Washington gave the go-ahead for Ukraine to use American weapons across its border in recent months, especially after Trump’s electoral victory. Did the Russian threat to retaliate against the US diminish? Did the US suddenly get safer? And why did it take so long to grant permission? The truth is, any sort of highly visible and attributable strike against the US was never a risk because Moscow would have suffered devastating retaliation. But an anonymous catastrophe in a major US city would work. A kind of secret Samson Option, or hidden nuclear device in Germany or America should Russian soil be bombed by allied weapons. The great efficacy of such a threat lies not in its use but entirely in the threat, the ambiguity. And the restraint or doubt it induces.

Nor should the threat be too visible or public. Anything that detonates massively raises an outcry, puts pressure on the authorities to find a return address, a clear culprit. No foreign power would risk such a big provocation that it would be identifiable and cause retaliation. Witness 9/11. One has to conclude, therefore, that the real version of such a threat would be scary rather than hugely destructive. The device would need to be constructed discreetly and stowed or delivered equally discreetly. And no foreign state actor would take responsibility. So, a small radiation device fits the bill. And this is precisely what New Jersey officials have been saying about the drone activity, namely that it’s our side looking for a small medical isotope gone missing, one that was aboard a container ship and went missing. But a federal agency has just denied the US was flying drones in search of nuclear radiation. All of which is standard procedure for stifling panic.

Finally, there’s this: the foreign actors would not deliver a direct threat. They would retain deniability, as in the Havana Syndrome. If, indeed, it’s a radiation device, nobody knows who was behind it, though the technical sophistication suggests only rival superpowers qualify as suspects. Which brings us back to the Russian dark ops and the inexplicable restraint of the Biden White House over helping Ukraine.