Topline
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have barely distinguishable leads in all seven battleground states, according to new swing state polling by the Wall Street Journal, that suggest the race remains incredibly tight just weeks before Election Day.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on October 9, 2024 in Reading, … [+]
Key Facts
Michigan: Harris leads Trump (47% to 45%) in a Wall Street Journal poll that includes third-party candidates released Friday, a change from the Thursday Emerson poll that shows Trump tied with Harris and from Trump’s three-point lead (50% to 47%) in a Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday—though Harris is still up 0.8 in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Pennsylvania: Trump has a one point advantage (46% to 45%) in Friday’s Wall Street Journal Poll. Conversely, Harris leads Trump 49% to 46% in the Quinnipiac poll, but trails him by one point (49% to 48%) in the Emerson poll—a one-point gain for each candidate since the September Emerson survey found Trump up 48%-47%. Harris leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Wisconsin: Harris holds a 1-point lead in Friday’s Journal poll, while Trump leads Harris by two points (48% to 46%) in the Quinnipiac poll, and the two are tied at 49% in the Emerson poll,. Harris is up 0.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.
Georgia: Harris leads narrowly (46% to 45%) in the Wall Street Journal poll, but Trump leads Harris 49% to 48% in the Emerson poll—nearly equal to Trump’s 1-point average FiveThirtyEight lead—after Emerson’s September survey showed him up three points (50% to 47%).
Nevada: The Journal poll has Trump up by 5 points. Harris is up one point (48% to 47%) in the Emerson survey. Harris leads by 0.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Big Number
2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by Real Clear Politics’ national polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 2.5 points.
Key Background
Harris became the nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
Further Reading
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Holds Onto Lead In 4 New Polls (Forbes)
Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In One Of Her Most Important State (Forbes)
Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has Less Than 1-Point Lead In Polling Averages (Forbes)
North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Near Tie In The New 7th Swing State (Forbes)
Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Most Surveys Show Trump Ahead In Crucial Swing State (Forbes)
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