The French government survived two motions of no-confidence launched by the far left, giving the Macronist establishment in Paris a brief reprieve from political disaster.
Prime Minister François Bayrou successfully avoided the fate of his predecessor on Wednesday. He faced down two censure attempts made by the leftist La France Insomise (France Unbowed/LFI) to topple him after his government invoked Article 49.3, a constitutional loophole that allows the national budget and social security spending to pass through without a vote in the National Assembly.
Had a no-confidence motion been successful, it would have toppled President Emmanuel Macron’s second government since December and put immense pressure on Macron to step down and launch an early presidential election, as passing a national budget would have become essentially impossible until at least July, when fresh legislative elections could be held.
Prime Minister Brayou escaped downfall by driving a wedge within the New Popular Front (NFP) coalition of leftist parties, convincing the Socialists to break with the rest of the bloc by giving some concessions on spending cuts and warning of fiscal calamity should the budget not pass, with France facing potential EU sanctions and credit downgrades if it fails to get its ballooning debt and deficits in check.
This meant that just 128 MPs backed the first no-confidence motion and only 122 for the second, well below the threshold of 289 needed to topple the government, Le Figaro reported.
Regardless of whether the Socialist Party had backed the move or not, it was still likely to fail given the hesitancy of the populist National Rally of Marine Le Pen to join with the left again to topple a government, after having done so in December to oust former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.
Nevertheless, Brayou’s political manoeuvring has created a fissure within the New Popular Front, with the far-left LFI arguing that the Socialists should be expelled from the coalition unless they return to the fold and express solidarity on the aim of toppling the government.
“The New Popular Front cannot be a simple place of passage where everyone enters and leaves according to their congress interests, in disregard of the consequences for the country. It is a contract that commits all the components on the basis of a program signed jointly and unwavering opposition to the government,” the party said in a statement.
Former LFI presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon denounced the “weakness” of the Socialists, saying that they “deserted the trench”.
Bayrou ally, Economic Minister Eric Lombard hailed the rejection of the no-confidence votes, saying: “MPs show that dialogue and compromise work. This is a good thing for our country and for our compatriots, proof that their political representatives know how to overcome their disagreements when the stability of the nation is at stake.”
However, with the National Assembly stuck in a three-way split — as a result of Macron’s decision to side with the NFP in last year’s elections to prevent the populist National Rally from taking control of the parliament — it is unclear if Brayou can find a majority to govern the country or whether he will attempt to rule by decree as in the case of the budget.
If the PM cannot find a governing coalition, fresh legislative elections will likely be called later this year, potentially giving Le Pen an opportunity to topple his government at the ballot box.
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