Why The “Money Lost” For Sam Darnold These Past Two Weeks Is Overblown

It was a rollercoaster of a 2024 season for Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold.

The former Jets first-round pick signed a one-year, $10 million contract with Minnesota this past offseason.

While a $10 million contract is a standard rate for a backup quarterback, especially since Darnold just completed a full year as the backup in San Francisco, the signing of the USC alum was never assumed to be the final solution under center.

So, when former franchise quarterback Kirk Cousins departed to Atlanta in free agency, the assumption of who would take the snap to open the season looked to be acquired via the draft.

The draft kept former Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy up north to be the face of the franchise, with Darnold set to support the rookie in his transition to the NFL.

Due to a surprise medical diagnostic from the top-10 selection, Darnold was flung into the starting role just weeks before the start of the season.

In terms of a rollercoaster, this was the unexpected acceleration at the beginning of the ride.

While this hampered expectations for the season, Darnold’s early success showed the talent on the roster and Kevin O’Connell’s coaching abilities.

However, Darnold was also playing the best football of his career.

Darnold led the Vikings to a 5-0 start to the season, throwing for 1,111 yards and 11 touchdowns with just 4 interceptions. His first loss in purple came to the Lions by just two points, despite Darnold going 22 for 27 from the field with a touchdown.

A strong start transitioned into a full season that the SKOL faithful could not have dreamed of after losing two franchise quarterbacks in one offseason, as Darnold led the team into the last week of the season with a 14-2 record and a chance for the one seed.

With a head-to-head matchup against the Detroit Lions, where the winner received a first-round bye, home-field advantage, and wins the NFC North, neither team decided to rest their starters in Week 18.

Thus, Minnesota-Detroit could serve as a playoff warmup for both teams, which would be the closest Darnold has come to seeing a playoff atmosphere in his seven-year career.

Darnold’s first test was not one to be remembered, as he finished with his season-low in completion percentage (43.9%) and passing yards (166), while failing to reach the end zone all game, despite three trips inside the 10-yard line.

This loss set up his first official playoff start, as the Vikings went from a week off to hitting the road to face the Los Angeles Rams.

While his performance statistically was better against LA, finishing 25 for 40 with 245 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, it did not come in a winning effort, losing a second consecutive game while scoring nine total points as an offense.

The key similarity between the two underwhelming performances for Darnold was the pressure he suffered. Against Detroit, this was the main factor in his lack of accuracy, as the Lions sacked Darnold twice while collecting 33 total pressures and 22 hurries as a unit.

Against the Rams, Darnold hit on more of his passing attempts, however the veteran quarterback took too long to ensure it was the proper decision, as he was dropped nine total times for 82 yards lost.

While the rollercoaster seems to be ending on the descent for number 14, Darnold still had a season he likely did not anticipate. He finished the year making his first career Pro Bowl, with 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns on the season.

The fortunate news for Darnold is that the rollercoaster will only go up from here on out, as he is practically guaranteed to receive a raise compared to his previous, one-year deal.

The first option would be for the Vikings to franchise tag Darnold, which would allow McCarthy to be able to come back from his injury without the pressure of being ready for the preseason or Week 1 of the regular season. The issue with this plan is the $41.3 million cap hit for a quarterback who will likely become a backup.

This would likely mean that Darnold will be a one-and-done quarterback in Minnesota after all.

After a year of throwing for over 4,000 yards and 35 touchdowns, and an estimate of nine teams needing a quarterback this offseason, Darnold is going to get another opportunity to start for a franchise in 2025. The unfortunate news for Darnold is the hit he took to his next contract with these last two performances.

Ironically enough for Darnold, his free agency projection is nearly identical to Cousins’ offseason a year ago. Cousins was the only starting-caliber quarterback on the market, as he earned his 4-year, $180 million contract from the Falcons, with Gardner Minshew earning the next-best offer at 2-year, $25 million.

Darnold was likely to receive a similar, if not better rate than Cousins, before the past two performances. However, with Darnold being younger and not coming off a season-ending injury, the longer his free agency lasts, the better.

With his current competition like Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Jacoby Brissett as the soon-to-be free agents, Darnold’s will have a list of bidders driving up his price in the offseason.

Even though there may be doubts on his ability to have success outside of O’Connell’s coaching, Darnold will experience yet another offseason of optimistic evaluations for teams in need of a leader under-center.