Expansive Military Operations Are Depleting Israel’s Munition Stocks

The outgoing Biden administration has proposed an $8 billion arms sale for Israel as that country’s munitions stockpiles are widely believed to be under significant strain after 15 months of continuous war.

According to officials cited by Reuters, the package includes small-diameter bombs and munitions for the Israeli Air Force’s fighter jets and helicopters, along with artillery shells for the army. Israel has expended tens of thousands of these numerous munitions since the current conflict began in October 2023. In the seven weeks following the infamous October 7 massacre perpetrated by Hamas, Israel dropped or fired 30,000 munitions on the narrow Gaza Strip alone, according to a recent investigation by the New York Times.

Beginning in September 2024, Israel expanded the war dramatically outside Gaza with three wholly unprecedented air campaigns.

In Lebanon, after wounding thousands of members of the powerful Hezbollah group with explosive rigged pagers and walkie-talkies, Israel fired over 2,000 munitions into Lebanon in a single day. That devastating opening salvo was the most airstrikes in a single day carried out in the air force’s history, which is saying something considering that history includes the game-changing 1967 Six Day War. The IAF proceeded to assassinate Hezbollah’s long-time leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in Beirut before the end of the month.

Against Iran in October, the Israeli Air Force sent more than 100 crewed aircraft to strike targets deep inside Iran, destroying missile production sites and Tehran’s most advanced Russian-made air defense systems all in a single night. That attack also featured Israeli-made air-launched ballistic missiles.

And finally, with the dramatic fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in early December, Israel scrambled to destroy the remnants of his military stockpiles, including its air defenses. Syrian air defenses, while significantly weakened during the Syrian civil war in the 2010s, have dogged the Israeli Air Force for decades. With no contingency plan, the IAF seized its opportunity, destroying over 100 Syrian surface-to-air missile batteries in 25 hours, according to the Israeli news site Ynet, along with the rest in the following days.

All of these offensive operations required tens of thousands of bombs and missiles, many of them advanced and expensive.

On the home front, Israel’s multilayered air and missile defenses have had to deal with a multitude of threats, ranging from small rockets fired by Hamas in neighboring Gaza to two enormous ballistic missile barrages fired directly from Iran. The Houthis in Yemen have also stepped up their targeting of Israel with ballistic missiles.

In late December, a Houthi missile hit a residential area after an Arrow 3 missile defense system malfunctioned. A few days later, one of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, systems the United States deployed to Israel in October 2024 intercepted another Houthi ballistic missile for the first time. Those incidents could indicate that Israeli interceptor stockpiles are running low or the systems are under strain from near-daily attacks. Whatever the case, Israel is already increasing serial production of Arrow interceptor missiles.

In a recent article, Israeli historian Benny Morris estimated that Israel’s stockpiles are “severely depleted,” especially the Iron Dome’s Tamir interceptor missiles and much of the IAF’s ground attack munitions. He also estimates that the IAF fighter jets and helicopters likely require extensive maintenance following their intensive operations spanning Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Yemen. Strikes against the latter two, in particular, were the longest range in the IAF’s history, with the only known precedent being a lone strike targeting the Palestine Liberation Organization in Tunisia in 1985.

Aside from one known pause of a shipment of 3,500 2,000-pound bombs and 500-pound bombs in May 2024, the U.S. supply of vast quantities of bombs and missiles has likely been consistent, if not constant, since October 2023.

Between the war’s beginning and June 2024, Reuters estimated the U.S. transferred no less than 14,000 2,000-pound Mark 84 general purpose bombs, 6,500 500-pound bombs, 3,000 Hellfire air-to-ground precision-guided missiles, 1,000 bunker-busters, and 2,600 small-diameter bombs, among others. Along with the latest provision and increased local production, any munitions shortages in Israel will likely prove temporary, especially if high-intensity operations have already peaked.

Nevertheless, a recent report in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz noted how this war has “underscored” the extent of Israel’s dependency on foreign suppliers, a dependency it intends to wean itself off.

“Without America’s massive arms airlift, the extended campaigns on Gaza and Lebanon, not to mention the air defense against Iranian missiles, would never have been possible,” read the report. “Israel doesn’t have the production capacity, especially for basic ordnance like tank shells.”

The same report also noted that the Israeli Ministry of Defense will spend “more than ever for arms” in the coming years. The record spending aims to “replenish stocks” depleted by the current conflict and “increase and upgrade” the military’s weaponry for future threats. Israel also wants to reduce its reliance on imported arms and munitions to minimize the potential impact of delays, supply chain issues, or even boycotts.

Aside from meeting its domestic demands, Israel also has expansive plans for the export market. Much to Ukraine’s consternation, Israel has not sent it lethal weaponry since Russia’s full-scale 2022 invasion, citing Russia’s presence in neighboring Syria, which has since been diminished by Assad’s fall. However, in the wake of that war, Israel has clinched some record-breaking deals with a Europe fearful of a revanchist Russia. These include exporting the Arrow 3 to Germany, Israel’s biggest-ever arms deal, with deliveries expected to begin this year. Additionally, Israel is selling the David’s Sling system to Russia’s neighbor Finland and has clinched deals to export its Barak MX system to Cyprus and Slovakia.

While many of Israel’s munitions stockpiles are likely low at the moment, this comes after inflicting devastating and strategic blows against various adversaries, who are not likely to prove capable of threatening it substantially before it replenishes those munitions. Furthermore, Israel plans on emerging from this lengthy war with a more robust and independent arms industry capable of meeting its needs for arms and munitions and those of a growing number of foreign customers.