Recapping A Whirlwind Of First Base Trades And Signings

Several MLB clubs had a first baseman on their holiday shopping list this year, and they stuffed their stockings this weekend. Since Friday, six teams either signed a first baseman or were involved in a trade affecting the position. A seventh team was given a deadline for a contract extension with the one they can’t afford to lose.

The frenzy began on Friday when the Houston Astros signed Christian Walker to a three-year, $60 million deal. Along with Pete Alonso, who is still available, he was perceived to be one of the top first basemen on the market. Over the last three seasons, he has hit .250/.332/.481 with 95 home runs for the Arizona Diamondbacks and collected three Gold Gloves. Houston’s calamitous contract with Jose Abreu tanked their first base production last year, but it also serves as a warning against older players at the cold corner. Walker will turn 34 the day after Opening Day.

When a player at the top of the market comes off the board, it can lead to many franchises pivoting immediately to Plan B. That’s what happened Saturday when the New York Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt to a one-year, $12.5 million contract. Goldschmidt won the 2022 NL MVP Award, but his bat has slowed down considerably since then. Last season, he hit just .245/.302/.414 overall, though he had a stronger second half in which he batted .271/.319/.480. His declining walk rate and bat speed are major red flags for a 37-year-old, and given the reasonable price tags on younger players with more upside, this was a questionable signing for New York. Still, he figures to be an improvement over Anthony Rizzo, the Yankees’ primary first baseman last year, who hit .228/.301/.335 and didn’t hit a home run after June 13.

A few hours later, the Diamondbacks traded for Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor. Over the last three years, his 123 OPS+, indicating his offense is 23% better than the league average, was identical to Walker’s, who he will replace in Arizona. His defense isn’t nearly as strong, but he blasted 31 home runs in 2024 and made his first All-Star team. The Diamondbacks could use him more at designated hitter if they prefer Pavin Smith’s glove at first base. He has one year of service time remaining before he reaches free agency next offseason.

In return, the Guardians received Slade Cecconi, a command-over-stuff pitcher with a 6.06 ERA over 104 innings in 2023 and 2024, and a draft pick. It doesn’t appear to be a strong return for a powerful bat like Naylor’s, but the 25-year-old Cecconi has accrued less than one full year of service time and has a minor-league option remaining.

Shortly after the trade Cleveland filled Naylor’s shoes by signing Carlos Santana to a one-year, $12 million deal. Even though he’ll turn 39 in April, he doesn’t show any of the signs of slowing down that Goldschmidt does. He batted .238/.328/.420 with 23 home runs and an excellent 10.9% walk rate for the Minnesota Twins. He also became the oldest position player ever to win his first Gold Glove. This will be his third stint in Cleveland, with whom he debuted as a catcher. He played for them from 2010-2017 and 2019-2020.

The Washington Nationals jumped in on the action yesterday by trading for Texas Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. While he has only eclipsed 20 home runs once in his career, he posts consistently excellent on-base percentages and won a Gold Glove in 2023. Last year, he batted .265/.361/.401 with a 120 OPS+. He has two more years of arbitration eligibility before reaching free agency.

Texas received lefty reliever Robert Garcia in return, who posted a 29.9% strikeout rate last season. His 2.38 FIP is more indicative of his future performance than his 4.22 ERA. The Rangers could spare Lowe after trading for Jake Burger from the Miami Marlins on December 11. Burger should be the full-time first baseman now instead of splitting time between first, third, and designated hitter. That leaves Josh Jung to man third base himself. They followed up the trade by signing designated hitter Joc Pederson to a two-year, $37 million deal this morning, who batted a robust .275/.393/.515 in Arizona last year, though he rarely faced left-handed pitching.

The Toronto Blue Jays were not involved in the first base shuffle because they have one of the best in the game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is already a four-time All-Star at age 25, coming off a .323/.396/.544 batting line. He only has one year left before free agency though, and extension talks have been slow. Yesterday, he issued a deadline of spring training to get a deal done, or he would play out his final season of arbitration eligibility and test the market next year, when he would arguably be the top overall player available.

All of the recent first base transactions have one notable name omitted. Pete Alonso remains a free agent, and the New York Mets still have the hole unfilled that he left behind. He isn’t likely to give a hometown discount, but his list of potential suitors dwindled considerably over the last few days. A reunion in Queens seems more likely than before.