The Rise of the New South: Economy, Population Growth, and Political Power as Blue States Cede the Top Spots

At the same time that the white male is the one demographic that one can openly mock and not be called a racist, the South has long been the butt of jokes for its lack of growth, development, and sophistication.

However, the reality is that Southern states now have the fastest-growing economies and populations and are challenging liberal states like California on multiple developmental metrics.

For the first time in modern record-keeping, six Southern states, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas, are contributing more to national GDP than the entire Northeast, according to Bloomberg’s analysis of IRS data. Those six states’ combined share of national GDP reached 23.8 percent by 2022, edging past the Northeast’s 22.4 percent share.

The broader South, defined by the Census Bureau to include 16 states plus D.C., is also growing at a faster rate than the country as a whole.

Its GDP expanded at an average annual rate of 4.3 percent from 2020 to 2024, compared with 3.6 percent for the U.S. economy overall. The South’s share of national GDP climbed from 34 percent in 2019 to 35 percent in 2024, according to Visa’s regional economic analysis.

The shift has been driven by a historic transfer of wealth and people. Bloomberg’s data shows that a flood of transplants steered roughly $100 billion in new income to the Southeast in 2020 and 2021 alone, while the Northeast lost about $60 billion over the same period. The Southeast accounted for more than two-thirds of all U.S. job growth since early 2020.

Census Bureau estimates show the South’s population grew by 6 percent between 2020 and 2025, nearly double the national rate, and was the only region to add population across every age group tracked.

The region has also accounted for most of the nation’s fastest-growing counties every year since 2020.

Nine of the ten fastest-growing metro areas in the country were located in the South in each of the two most recent Census releases, with the sole exception both years being St. George, Utah.

A Brennan Center analysis projects that the South could gain nine congressional seats after the 2030 Census, its largest single-decade gain in history, driven overwhelmingly by Texas and Florida, with Georgia and North Carolina also gaining seats.

Those gains would come chiefly at the expense of California and New York, alongside smaller losses across several Midwestern and Northeastern states.

California has fallen behind on nearly every major indicator of governance under Gavin Newsom, while the South continues to improve. On education specifically, Alabama’s fourth graders now outrank California’s on the National Assessment of Educational Progress, with Alabama placing 33rd to 34th nationally in reading and math, while California ranked among the bottom four states in reading, ahead of only West Virginia, New Mexico, and Alaska.

California carries the largest budget deficit in the country, while Southern states dominate business-climate rankings. Florida ranks near the top of the Tax Foundation’s State Tax Competitiveness Index, while California ranks 48th out of 50.

Culturally, the region’s rise is visible even where it hasn’t overtaken the old centers of gravity. Georgia has built a substantial film and television production base over the past decade, anchored by studios like Trilith and Tyler Perry Studios.

Los Angeles still leads the nation with an 18.3 percent share of scripted film and TV production, more than Georgia’s 9.8 percent, according to 2024 FilmLA data.

However, LA’s share has fallen from 21.9 percent in 2022, while Georgia has made notable gains over the same period. Atlanta, with a fraction of LA’s size and none of its century of industry infrastructure, now captures more than half of LA’s output share.

Publishing and music tell a similar story of Southern concentration. Nashville has become a center of Christian and inspirational publishing, home to major houses including B&H Publishing Group, a Southern Baptist Convention imprint and one of the largest Christian publishers in the country, alongside Thomas Nelson and LifeWay. Music is a stronger case still.

Nashville’s music industry activity is as much as 30 times greater than the national average and more than 10 times greater than New York or Los Angeles, according to research from the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce.

The city’s output extends well beyond country, though country remains its signature. Nashville alone accounts for 50 percent of all U.S. country music publishing revenue. Atlanta has built a separate music economy centered on hip-hop.