Independent Montana Senate candidate Seth Bodnar could withdraw from the state’s U.S. Senate race before the Aug. 10 filing deadline if Democrat nominee Alani Bankhead remains on the ballot.
Republican strategists and political operatives told Breitbart News that Bodnar’s campaign has struggled to gain traction despite spending by both the campaign and an allied super PAC.
“Things are bleak for Seth right now. He’s spending all of his campaign and super PAC money trying to generate momentum, but he just hasn’t caught on yet,” said one well-connected Montana Republican strategist. “If Alani refuses to drop out, there is really nothing Seth can do because, unlike him, she was actually nominated by voters in a primary.”
Sources also said frustration has grown within Bodnar’s camp over Bankhead’s decision to stay in the race. They claimed the campaign has begun circulating opposition research centered on Bankhead’s old Facebook posts in an effort to pressure her to withdraw.
“Seth is going to try to smear Alani to force her out of the race, but if that doesn’t work then he’s screwed,” said another longtime Montana political operative. “If Alani won’t drop out, Seth probably will because he will have even less of a path to victory than he does right now.”
The sources also said a super PAC backing Bodnar has started sending text messages urging Bankhead to leave the race before the filing deadline.
Lindsey Ratliff, a member of the Montana Democratic Party’s Executive Board, criticized the messages in a Facebook post, accusing the PAC of encouraging supporters to pressure the Democrat nominee into dropping out.
“I have kept mostly quiet on social media regarding the quagmire that is the U.S. Senate Race. But I cannot condone the behavior of the Bodnar campaign’s associated PACS and their Hail Mary request to thousands of Montanans to essentially harass the Democratic nominee into dropping out of the race by August 10th,” Ratliff wrote.
Ratliff also said the Bodnar campaign waited until this summer to begin reaching out to Democrat leaders rather than building support over a longer period.
“Now, an unproven candidate’s PAC is enlisting his supporters to harass the Democratic nominee all because his campaign consultants don’t know how to plan ahead or work with the Democratic Party he clearly so wishes he was the candidate for. Sounds SLOPPY to me,” Ratcliff continued.
Recent public polling suggests Bodnar has struggled to gain traction in the race, trailing Bankhead in both three-way and head-to-head matchups.
A GrayHouse poll conducted June 23-24 among 500 likely voters found Republican nominee Kurt Alme leading with 41 percent, followed by Bankhead at 25 percent and Bodnar at 17 percent in a three-way contest. Following the survey, Inside Elections shifted the Montana Senate race back to the “Solid Republican” column.
More recently, polling commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee found Alme leading with 45 percent, followed by Bankhead at 30 percent and Bodnar at 15 percent in a three-way race.
The NRSC survey also tested hypothetical two-way matchups. Alme led Bankhead 49-46 percent and held a 50-43 percent advantage over Bodnar.
The deadline for candidates to withdraw from Montana’s U.S. Senate race is Aug. 10.
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