Four days remain until House lawmakers are scheduled to leave for summer recess, but GOP leaders are in the opposite of vacation mode.
This week’s packed floor schedule includes: the annual defense policy package; a bill to fund the government beyond the midterms; a budget resolution to unlock the reconciliation process; and a GOP-led stock trading ban measure.
All that could change, of course, if Speaker Mike Johnson can’t tamp down multiple flare-ups of frustration in his ranks.
We’ll be watching if Johnson has appeased hard-liners with Tuesday’s Judiciary markup of border security legislation, after they froze all business on the House floor for weeks, including the defense policy bill (more on that below).
President Donald Trump’s renewed pressure campaign to pass the SAVE America Act elections bill and more deaths of U.S. service members in the Iran war may also shift some Republicans’ political calculus this week.
Here’s what we’re watching for the floor:
— NDAA: House Rules meets at 2 p.m. Monday on the must-pass annual defense policy bill, Leo Shane III and Connor O’Brien write in.
Johnson will allow a series of socially conservative floor amendments to win over hard-liner votes as Democrats signal more opposition to the usually bipartisan bill.
On Friday, House Armed Services ranking member Adam Smith flipped and says he now plans to oppose the National Defense Authorization Act on the floor.
Should it pass, though, the defense bill will be merged with the SAVE America Act, although the Senate is likely to sweep away those provisions along with many of the hard-liner amendments.
— GOVERNMENT FUNDING: Johnson wants the House to pass a “clean” government funding bill that would float federal operations until Dec. 4 — hoping to instigate a staredown with Democrats after two record-breaking shutdowns this Congress.
The gambit, however, risks alienating members of his own party who want the partisan elections overhaul bill attached to all legislation.
But so far hard-liners, including Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris, are signaling they’ll let it slide this time.
Harris warned Mia, though, that “if Democrats want to shut down the government,” then it’s time to play hardball and fund the TSA, FAA and military salaries through reconciliation.
— BUDGET RESOLUTION: Leaders are putting a $95 billion fiscal blueprint on the floor that includes a watered-down version of the elections bill as well as Iran war and farm aid funds.
Rep. Thomas Massie told us last week he’s “probably a no” on the resolution, and Rep. Warren Davidson hinted he and others could tank the effort — though Davidson cautioned there’s still “a lot of time” to make a deal.
Deficit hawks are irked the bill wouldn’t be entirely paid for, though, and ultraconservatives don’t love that the SAVE America Act isn’t included in full.
— STOCK TRADING: Republicans will likely have to rely on their own members to get this GOP-led bill over the finish line. And, GOP leaders are planning to link it to a separate measure that would implement stricter voter ID laws many Democrats have opposed.
What else we’re watching:
— RON JOHNSON FACES A ROCKY BUDGET REALITY: Sen. Ron Johnson is jumping directly into a legislative train wreck. The Wisconsin senator cut his teeth as a fiscal hawk willing to irritate his own party in pursuit of his deficit-shrinking dreams. Now Johnson is assuming an out-sized role in advancing the latest GOP reconciliation bill following former Budget Chair Lindsey Graham’s unexpected death. That means Johnson will have to reconcile his penchant for being a squeaky wheel from the sidelines with his new responsibility as chair to craft an agreement on a massive spending bill that leadership can sell to skeptical colleagues.
— HARD-LINERS GEAR UP FOR JUDICIARY BORDER MARKUP — House GOP hard-liners are getting ready to cash in on a promise made to them earlier this month by Johnson in exchange for their support for allowing floor business to proceed. House Judiciary is planning a Tuesday morning markup of a GOP immigration bill, which will contain pieces of a sweeping bill introduced in the prior Congress as H.R. 2. Still, moderate and senior Republicans are cautioning the legislation doesn’t have the support to pass the chamber.
Jordain Carney, Jennifer Scholtes and Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.
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