The U.S. economy is poised to defy a global slowdown in growth, with its output rising at a faster rate even as the broader global economy slows sharply, a report from the International Monetary Fund showed on Wednesday.
The forecasts support the idea that the U.S. economy is more resilient to the supply-chain disruptions and revived inflationary pressures that are seen as holding back growth around the world, thanks to U.S. energy production and investments in technology. Both energy production and support for technology investment have been key economic policies of the Trump administration.
The IMF projects that the U.S. economy will grow 2.3 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year, up from 2.1 percent last year. The estimate for this year is unchanged from the IMF’s forecast released in April. Next year’s estimate was revised up by a tenth of a percentage point.
By contrast, Europe’s growth is seen as slowing from 2025’s 1.4 percent to just 0.9 percent this year, two-tenths of a percentage point lower than the April estimate and less than half of the U.S. projected growth rate. Next year’s growth is estimated at just 1.2 percent.
Germany’s economy is forecast to grow 0.7 percent in 2026 and 1.0 percent in 2027. France is poised to grow just 0.6 percent this year and 0.9 percent next year. Italy is projected to grow just half a percentage point in both years. Spain’s growth is projected to be healthier, at 2.1 percent this year before slowing to 1.8 percent next year.
The U.K. economy is seen as expanding one percent this year and 1.3 percent next year. The forecast for Canada is 1.1 percent this year and 1.7 percent next year. Japan’s growth rate is projected at 0.6 percent this year and 0.7 percent next year.
Global growth is seen as coming in at 3 percent in 2026, down from 3.5 percent last year and under the earlier estimate of 3.1 percent.
The IMF says the slowdown in much of the world is attributable to the effects of the war in the Middle East. These are partially offset, in the IMF’s estimates, by the acceleration in investment in artificial intelligence.
“The global economy as a whole has, so far, weathered the shock from the war better than feared,” the I.M.F. economists wrote in the report.
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