Every single day that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the damage that is being done to the global economy is getting even worse. But the full consequences of the global oil crisis that we are facing will not be felt for a while because nations all over the globe are still running through their strategic oil reserves. And the full consequences of the global fertilizer crisis that we are facing will not be felt until harvest season. So don’t judge the severity of this emergency by what we are experiencing at this moment, because the truth is that what we are experiencing at this moment is just the very small tip of a very large iceberg.
This week, it appears that more people out there are starting to understand that the Strait of Hormuz is not going to be reopened any time soon.
On Wednesday, President Trump explained that he is not going to lift the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports until Iran agrees to give up their nuclear program…
US President Donald Trump told Axios that he would keep Iran under a naval blockade until Tehran agreed to a deal addressing US concerns over its nuclear program.
“The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing,” Trump was quoted as saying. “They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon.”
Trump said Iran wanted a deal to lift the blockade, but added he did not want to do so unless Tehran was prevented from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
“They want to settle. They don’t want me to keep the blockade. I don’t want to [lift the blockade], because I don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon,” he said.
But Iran is not going to give up their nuclear program.
In fact, a member of Iran’s Supreme Council of Experts has stated that it is “forbidden to hold any negotiation on the right to enrich uranium”…
Ahmad Kaveibi, member of Iran’s Supreme Council of Experts:
“It is forbidden to hold any negotiation on the right to enrich uranium. This issue falls outside the negotiation’s framework. This contradicts the position of the Supreme Leader and is forbidden from a jurisprudential standpoint.”
Over and over again, Iran has steadfastly refused to even negotiate about their “right” to enrich uranium.
But Trump seems to be convinced that if he just puts enough pressure on the Iranians they will eventually change their minds.
We shall see.
The Iranians know that midterm elections are looming in the United States, and so the clock is ticking for Trump.
If the Democrats take control of both houses of Congress, they would likely force Trump to end the blockade and leave Iran alone.
So from an Iranian point of view, all they have to do is hold out until the end of the year and they win.
Meanwhile, the global economy just continues to suffer.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, it would still take up to 6 months to fully clear all of the mines that have been laid…
It could take six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines deployed by the Iranian military, and any such operation is unlikely to be carried out until the U.S. war with Iran ends, the Pentagon has informed Congress — an assessment that means the conflict’s economic impact could extend late into this year or beyond.
A senior Defense Department official shared the estimate, which has not been previously reported, during a classified briefing Tuesday for members of the House Armed Services Committee, said three officials familiar with the discussion. The timeline — met with frustration by Democrats and Republicans alike, two of these people said — is perhaps the clearest sign that gasoline and oil prices could remain elevated long after any peace deal is reached.
And it isn’t just a matter of restoring the flow of traffic through the Strait.
Oil production in the Persian Gulf region is down 57 percent from pre-war levels.
Thanks to damage that has already been done during this war, it will literally take years for production to return to 100 percent.
The head of the International Energy Agency is warning that we are facing “the greatest energy security crisis in history”…
Fatih Birol, chief executive of the International Energy Agency, has called the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz “the greatest energy security crisis in history”, insisting it is “more serious” than the previous energy shocks in 1973 (when some Arab states imposed an oil embargo on the West), 1979 (caused by the Iranian revolution) and 2022 (Ukraine) “put together”.
In a book that I authored during the early part of 2025, I discussed the fact that a great conflict in the Middle East would cause oil prices to rise dramatically.
And that is precisely what has occurred.
On Wednesday, oil prices rose to the highest levels that we have seen during this war so far…
Oil prices jumped more than 6% on Wednesday, after President Donald Trump said he will maintain the U.S. naval blockade against Iran until they agreed to a nuclear deal.
International benchmark Brent crude futures rose more than 6% to $118.33 per barrel by 12:10 p.m. ET, U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures also advanced more than 6% to $106.37 per barrel.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, this will only be just the beginning.
A lot of people are freaking out because the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States is now well above 4 dollars a gallon…
U.S. gas prices have hit a fresh record since the start of the war with Iran, rising to an average nationwide of $4.23 per gallon Wednesday, according to the motor club AAA.
The grim milestone comes as oil prices have surged higher over the past week amid a dual blockade by the U.S. and Iran of the Strait of Hormuz, the key chokepoint in the region for transiting crude and petroleum-based products out of the Persian Gulf.
If people are freaking out now, what will they do when the price of gasoline goes much higher?
Meanwhile, we are also facing the worst global fertilizer crisis in history by a very wide margin…
More than half of the Middle East’s urea output may have been lost since the start of the Iran conflict, which is continuing to disrupt fertilizer flows from the region and threatening global food inflation.
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked shipments of urea, a key component in nitrogen fertilizers, leaving large volumes stranded in the Gulf and tightening supplies for farmers around the world. At the same time, Iranian drone attacks on nations including Qatar and Bahrain have damaged energy and industrial infrastructure, hindering production of the chemical itself.
That has forced urea manufacturers in the region to curb operations, with 55% to 60% of output potentially halted, according to consultancy CRU Group.
Without sufficient supplies of nitrogen fertilizer, we can’t even come close to growing enough food to feed everyone on this planet.
In other words, we really are facing a scenario in which large numbers of people in impoverished nations could end up starving.
At the same time, U.S. wheat farmers are facing the worst drought in the heartland of America since the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s…
U.S. wheat futures rallied to the highest in nearly two years Tuesday, as drought in U.S. Plains wheat fields pressures yields while soaring fertilizer costs have caused farmers to trim planting of nutrient-intensive crops such as grains.
CBOT wheat futures surged after the latest Crop Progress report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture said only 30% of the winter wheat crop is in good or excellent condition as of April 26.
The amount of winter wheat that gets harvested this year is going to be very disappointing.
Looking ahead, it is being projected that the number of acres of wheat that U.S. farmers are planting in the spring will be the fewest “since record keeping began in 1919”…
U.S. growers were poised to plant the fewest acres of wheat since record keeping began in 1919, as high costs for fertilizer, seeds, and equipment have made it difficult to turn a profit.
Yes, this is really happening.
If you think that the price of cookies is high now, you should brace yourself, because you haven’t seen anything yet.
In some areas of the country, conditions are so exceedingly dry that it just doesn’t make sense for farmers to try to grow anything.
Dane Wigington is warning that we are heading into a “summer from hell”…
What is going to happen when summer starts? Wigington says, “This is the summer from Hell that we are approaching right now. This will be like no other. The snow pack in the Colorado River watershed is almost nonexistent. The snowpack in the Sierra Nevada averages about 20%. In the Northern Sierra, it is about 5%. That’s 5% of normal. Why isn’t that headline everywhere? People have no idea what is coming. . .. What will happen in the Southwest? We are going to find out soon. Right now, they are frantically discussing desalination facilities in the Gulf of California. . .. That is idiocy and not going to save anything. It can’t be done in any time frame that matters.”
This isn’t a coincidence.
Most of my regular readers already understand this.
If you look at the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map, it looks like a horror show.
There is no easy way out of this.
It will take some time for the full consequences of this nightmare to arrive, but when they do our society will experience immense pain.
Read the full article here