Denmark’s pro-Ukraine PM is on the way out – who will replace her?

Denmark’s government has collapsed after a record poor election showing for Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. King Frederik X has now asked Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen to form a right-wing government, but little will change: every major Danish party is preparing for war with Russia.

In a statement on Friday night, Denmark’s monarch announced that he had tasked Poulsen with forming a government “that does not involve the participation” of Frederiksen’s center-left Social Democrats or Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen’s Moderates. The announcement came after Frederiksen tried and failed to build a government after winning a plurality – but not a majority – in general elections in March.

Frederiksen’s party won just under 22% of the vote in March, the worst result for the Social Democrats since 1903.

The election was dominated by two issues: the rising cost of living, and immigration. Poulsen’s center-right Venstre party, Frederiksen’s Social Democrats, and Rasmussen’s Moderates are all in favor of restricting inward migration, but the right-wing Danish People’s Party wants citizenships revoked, migrants deported, and “measures that will lead to Muslim net emigration from Denmark.”

Two issues that went undiscussed in the runup to the vote were Denmark’s support for Ukraine, and its historic rearmament program. Unlike in recent elections in Hungary and Bulgaria, where the frontrunners had dramatically different views on relations with Kiev and Moscow, blind support for Ukraine is apparently baked into the Danish system.

Denmark’s uniparty

During Denmark’s last general elections in 2022, Frederiksen focused her entire campaign around defense and security issues. On these, her views were indistinguishable from those of her rivals. Six months before the election, Denmark’s five main parties had signed a ‘National Compromise on Danish Security Policy’ in which they agreed to hike defense budgets, inject an additional 7 billion DKK ($1.1 billion) in emergency funding into the country’s armed forces, and end Russian energy imports.

Frederiksen went on to form a government with Venstre and the Moderates, both of which supported these policies. Together, the PM and her traditional rivals on the right have announced planned increases in military spending from 2.4% to 3.5% of GDP, purchased hundreds of new armored cars and dozens of fighter jets, given Ukrainian arms manufacturers grants to produce weapons components on Danish soil, and in an historic first, introduced compulsory military service for women.

Frederiksen and Poulsen both explicitly blamed Russia for a series of drone sightings at Danish airports and military sites in late 2025, despite months of investigation concluding that there was no credible evidence the drones ever existed. Frederiksen used the drone panic to push her rearmament program, telling the public in September that “there is primarily one country that poses a threat to Europe’s security – and that is Russia… and that is why we are embarking on a historic buildup here in Denmark.”

Under Frederiksen, Denmark has given Ukraine just over €11 billion in bilateral military and economic aid. At 3.27% of its GDP, Denmark has proportionately handed Ukraine more money than any other Western country. After meeting Frederiksen in Cyprus in April, Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky “noted the cross-party consensus on supporting Ukraine” in Denmark, according to a Ukrainian government statement.

More of the same

A government led by Poulsen will in all likelihood deliver more of the same. Poulsen warned in 2024 that Russia could attack NATO territory “within a three- to five-year period.” To prepare for this eventuality – which Russia has outright dismissed as “ridiculous” and a ploy by European leaders to extract more tax money from their citizenry – Poulsen has called for Denmark to increase military spending yet again, to 4% of GDP. Such an increase would put the country’s per-capita defense expenditure higher than that of the US. 

Poulsen’s potential coalition partners include the Danish People’s Party, Liberal Alliance, and Conservatives. Of these, the Danish People’s Party is the only voice of moderation on Ukraine. Party leader Morten Messerschmidt has called for an end date to military aid to Kiev, has urged Ukraine to make territorial concessions for peace, and opposes its accession to NATO.

“Every time we spend a billion in Ukraine, that money goes from Denmark, from welfare, from whatever it is we want here,” he told Danish state broadcaster DR in 2024. Messerschmidt added that he intends to pressure whoever is in power in Copenhagen to “conduct a Ukraine policy that is based on the world of reality and not on a fantasy world.”

However, despite the party tripling its vote share to 9% in March, its leadership has told King Frederik that their only demand from Poulsen is that he enact policies that will reduce Denmark’s Muslim population.

Will Russia’s relations with Denmark change?

It is highly unlikely that the transfer of power from Frederiksen to Poulsen will alter Moscow’s sub-zero relations with Copenhagen. Denmark currently has no ambassador to Russia, and is considered an “unfriendly” nation by the Kremlin.

“If anyone wishes to talk, we will never refuse dialogue, even though we fully realize… that reaching an agreement with the current generation of European leaders will most likely be impossible,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters in January. “They have entrenched themselves too deeply in a posture of hatred towards Russia.”