Consumer confidence rose in April to the best level of the year, as consumers took a more optimistic view of the jobs market and their income prospects.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 92.8 from an upwardly revised 92.2 in March, handily beating the consensus forecast of 89 in surveys of economists conducted by both Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal.
The Expectations Index — measuring consumers’ six-month outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions — rose 1.2 points to 72.2, driven by improving views on both the job market and household income. The labor market differential, a closely watched measure that subtracts the share of consumers who say jobs are “hard to get” from those who say jobs are “plentiful,” widened to 7.5 percentage points from 6.1 in March. The improvement came primarily from a decline in the share of respondents reporting difficulty finding work, which fell to 19.8 percent from 21.3 percent.
The gains are particularly notable given the headwinds consumers faced during the April 1–22 survey period. Brent crude oil prices surged on the back of the Middle East conflict, sending gasoline prices visibly higher at the pump. The Conference Board’s own write-in data showed that consumer mentions of prices, oil and gas, and war all increased in frequency compared to March.
“Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices,” said Dana M. Peterson, the Conference Board’s chief economist. She noted that improved perceptions of the labor market and slightly more optimistic income expectations offset declining views of business conditions.
The nearly four-point beat over the consensus estimate suggests that economists may have overweighted the impact of energy prices and geopolitical anxiety on consumer attitudes while underweighting the stabilizing effect of a labor market that continues to show resilience. The March jobs report showed a rebound in hiring, with 178,000 positions added and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.3 percent.
Consumers under 35 remained the most optimistic demographic group, while those 55 and over were the least confident, a split consistent with younger workers benefiting most directly from tight labor conditions and undercutting claims that younger Americans are facing a particularly hard time in today’s economy.
Not all the signals were positive. The Present Situation Index slipped 0.3 points to 123.8, as consumers’ net assessment of current business conditions deteriorated. Views on expected business conditions were also slightly more pessimistic. The share of consumers who said a recession over the next 12 months is “very likely” rose again, and the cohort believing the economy is already in recession edged higher.
Purchasing intentions were mixed. Buying plans for big-ticket items continued to shift from “yes” and “maybe” toward “no” in April, though the share saying “yes” remained well above other responses. The Conference Board noted that consumer spending trends in 2026 remain focused on necessary services and affordable indulgences rather than expensive discretionary activities.
The Conference Board result diverges sharply from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, which fell to a record low in April. The two measures track different dimensions of the consumer experience: the Conference Board index is weighted toward labor market conditions, while the Michigan survey emphasizes personal finances and cost of living. The gap between the two may reflect a consumer who feels secure in employment but pressured by prices — a combination that would explain why spending has remained solid even as sentiment surveys send conflicting signals.
Corporate earnings reports over the past several weeks have generally shown firm consumer demand, and Commerce Department data showed strong retail sales growth in March. The initial estimate of first-quarter GDP, due later this week, is widely expected to show a substantial acceleration.
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