Only a narrow majority of Virginians are supportive of a ballot referendum that would allow Democrats to gerrymander the state’s congressional map, a significant warning sign for the party ahead of the vote later this month.
Fifty-two percent of likely voters said they would vote in favor of the redistricting measure if the election was held today in a Washington Post/Schar School poll released Friday, with 47 percent going the other way.
Election Day is April 21, but early voting began in March.
Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are showing more energy than their Democratic counterparts, with 85 percent of GOP voters saying they are certain to or have already voted, compared with 77 percent of Democrats.
The ballot initiative — which could net up to four Democratic seats in the midterms — is seen by the party as a necessary measure to combat White House-inspired gerrymandering in Republican-controlled states such as Texas, Missouri and Florida.
But there is evidence that Virginia voters may feel differently. Just 34 percent of respondents said the state’s congressional districts should balance out recent changes in other states, compared with 57 percent who said the districts should “reflect the political makeup of the state.”
And 48 percent of respondents said a 10-1 map favoring Democrats would constitute unfair representation, compared with 44 percent of voters who said that would be a fair “representation of Virginians’ political preferences.”
Democrats are increasingly worried they might come short in the election, despite enjoying a massive fundraising advantage over Republicans.
They’ve enlisted former President Barack Obama to lend his celebrity to the cause. He implored Virginia voters to back the redraw effort in a video released on X in March.
“We can’t afford two more years of unchecked power and zero accountability in Washington,” Obama said in the video. “Help us chart a better path forward.”
The Washington Post/Schar School poll was conducted by telephone March 26-31, with a random sample of 1,101 registered voters. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
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