IRS Filing Season Still Trails 2025, But Refunds Are Up More Than 10%

IRS data from the fourth week of the tax filing season—the week ending February 20, 2026—suggest that, despite the promise of higher refunds, taxpayers still aren’t rushing to file. However, as expected, tax refunds continue to trend higher than last year.

The IRS received 41,892,000 individual income tax returns as of February 20, 2026, down from 42,707,000 at the same point in 2025. That’s a 1.9% dip in returns.

Processing numbers show a similar slowdown. The IRS processed 41,362,000 individual income tax returns, compared with 42,396,000 at this point last year—a decline of 2.4%.

While the gap has narrowed compared with earlier snapshots this season, returns are still trailing 2025. Whether that reflects taxpayer hesitation, shifting filing patterns, or administrative issues remains to be seen.

As noted previously, early filers typically have simpler returns—those claiming the standard deduction and relying primarily on Forms W-2. They’re less likely to include detailed itemized deductions or schedules reporting business or rental income. If processing continues to lag in the early weeks, more complex filings later in the season could strain the system.

For its part, the IRS continues to emphasize that the filing season remains strong and that refunds are being issued to taxpayers as planned.

How To File

The IRS continues to encourage taxpayers to e-file, noting that it is typically faster, more secure, and more accurate.

So far this season, the IRS has received 41,377,000 e-filed returns, compared with 41,896,000 at the same point last year—a modest 1.2% decrease.

Of those:

• 17,795,000 were filed by tax professionals (down 2.9%), and
• 23,582,000 were self-prepared (up 0.1%).

That means DIY filing is essentially holding steady—and slightly outperforming last year—while professionally prepared returns continue to trail 2025 levels. Early-season filing still skews toward self-prepared returns, and this year’s data suggests that pattern is continuing.

Many DIY filers rely on tax software. If you don’t want to pay for software, consider the IRS Free File program—but be sure to review each provider’s offer carefully. Some include free state preparation, while others charge additional fees. Those fees must be disclosed on the provider’s Free File landing page. And Free File isn’t for everyone—eligibility becomes more limited as income rises or returns grow more complex.

One more important note: the IRS shut down its Direct File program in 2026 after criticism from Republican lawmakers who argued it duplicated private-sector options. Commercial tax-prep companies also opposed the program.

IRS.gov Web Visits

Web traffic has surged dramatically. As of February 20, 2026, there have been 244,503,000 visits to IRS.gov, compared with 167,087,000 at the same point in 2025—a striking 46.3% increase. That spike suggests taxpayers are actively searching for answers—likely about refund timing, filing changes, and new 2025 tax provisions.

For refund status, the IRS continues to direct taxpayers to the “Where’s My Refund?” tool, which provides three key updates:

• Confirmation that the return was received
• Approval of the refund
• The refund issuance date

According to the IRS, information about your refund is typically available within 24 hours of e-filing, three to four days after receipt of a prior-year e-filed return, or about four weeks after mailing a paper return (anecdotally, amended returns are taking much longer—last year, waits averaged five months). The IRS updates the tool once daily—usually overnight—so repeated checks throughout the day won’t speed up processing.

Tax Refunds

The biggest takeaway remains the refund size. The average refund is now $3,804, up from $3,453 at the same point last year—an increase of 10.2%.

The total amount refunded so far is $109.329 billion, up 6.9% from $102.253 billion last year. Why the boost? One reason is the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which largely took effect in July 2025 and expanded several tax breaks, including a higher standard deduction, larger child tax credits, and new deductions for overtime and tip income.

However, the IRS did not update the withholding tables to reflect many of these changes. As a result, many taxpayers likely overpaid throughout the year—leading to larger refunds when filing 2025 returns in 2026.

Refund growth is expected to be most noticeable among middle-income households (roughly $50,000–$150,000), families benefiting from expanded dependent credits, workers with tip or overtime income, and older taxpayers who qualify for the additional senior deductions.

That said, while refunds are larger, fewer have been issued so far. The total number of refunds issued is 28,738,000, down 3.0% from 29,615,000 last year. Direct deposit data show a similar pattern: 29,099,000 direct deposit refunds issued (down 0.3%) and $110.825 billion refunded via direct deposit (up 8.4%). The average direct deposit refund is $3,809, up 8.7% from last year. So far, there are fewer refunds, but they are significantly larger.

As a reminder, the PATH Act requires the IRS to hold refunds tied to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) until mid-February. Refunds subject to the PATH hold are excluded from early-season statistics. With the statutory hold now lifted, EITC and ACTC filers should begin receiving refunds in the coming days.

2026 Tax Filing Season

As a reminder, the IRS opened the 2026 tax filing season on January 26, 2026, and expects approximately 164 million individual returns for tax year 2025 to be filed before the April 15 deadline. So far, the filing pace is slightly behind last year’s pace, but the gap has narrowed. The good news for taxpayers? Refund dollars continue to be well above 2025 levels.

The open question now isn’t whether refunds are larger—they clearly are. It’s whether filing volume will accelerate in the coming weeks or whether taxpayers are simply taking a more measured approach this season. We’ll keep watching the numbers.

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