In a field of 12 announced candidates, Republican Steve Hilton leads Democrats and Republicans in the upcoming race for California governor. More importantly, he has some momentum.
“The Republican electorate in California is split between Steve Hilton at 38 percent and Chad Bianco at 37 percent, while Hilton also picks up a plurality of independent voters at 22 percent,” said the pollster, Emerson. “Democratic voters have not yet clearly coalesced around one candidate.”
Since the previous poll, Hilton has increased his support by five points, as has billionaire Tom Steyer, who currently earns 8.8 percent support.
Unsurprisingly, “Undecided” leads the race with a plurality of 21.2 percent. But “Undecided” is not on the ballot. Among those who have decided, political adviser and commentator Hilton leads with 17.1 percent. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) is in second place with 14.1 percent. In third place is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco with 13.5 percent. Former Democrat Rep. Katie Porter has 9.8 percent support.
The primary is set for June 2. Whoever wins the most votes will compete to replace outgoing Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom in November. Whoever gets the most votes has nothing to do with party affiliation. On June 3, Californians voting in the general election in November could have only two Democrats to choose from or two Republicans.
There’s more good news for the GOP in the former Golden State…
The poll also found that Newsom’s approval rating sits at 44 percent, with 45 percent disapproving. In worse news for Democrats, 53 percent of those polled are thinking about fleeing the state due to the high cost of living. The immigration question is equally fascinating, with only a three-point split between those who favor former President Joe Biden’s approach to immigration (41 percent) to President Trump’s approach (38 percent). Twenty-one percent said they don’t like either approach.
For two decades now, there has been a ton of corporate media talk about how Texas is always on a knife-edge between a Republican and Democrat state. Nevertheless, once the voters are given the chance to have their say, Texas remains firmly Republican.
Two things could help the GOP capture the governor’s mansion in one of the bluest states in the country.
The first is that the top two Democrats in this poll — Swalwell and Porter — are terrible candidates, and even in California, the candidate matters. The state’s Democrats would be smart to coalesce around Steyer.
The second is that under Democrat rule, California has become a failed state. The question is whether or not enough Democrat voters are demoralized by this fact to stay home to give the GOP a win.
One thing to keep in mind is that all three Republican candidates hit a total of only 30 percent support in this poll, while the Democrat candidates’ total support lands at around 45 percent.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
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