A DHS shutdown is coming Friday night, and there’s no telling how long it could last.
The White House on Wednesday night sent Congress the legislative text of its immigration enforcement counterproposal, a White House official and two people granted anonymity to disclose the private action told POLITICO. But key Democrats have already said they don’t believe the administration is serious enough about reining in the immigration agencies, all but guaranteeing a funding lapse despite the text exchange.
— State of play: Senators are headed into doomed DHS appropriations votes Thursday. Majority Leader John Thune teed up a vote to advance the House-passed DHS bill. Once that inevitably fails, Republicans plan to try to pass at least one continuing resolution, according to two people granted anonymity to discuss unannounced plans.
“It doesn’t look like we’re going to stick the landing … so we’ll have to go to Plan B,” Thune told reporters Wednesday evening.
Republicans want another stopgap that lasts between four to six weeks, but haven’t made a final decision about what they will try to clear Thursday. But they’d need Senate Democrats to advance any such measure, and the minority party said Wednesday they had no interest in cooperating on a stopgap.
Minority Leader Chuck Schumer declared Democrats won’t support a CR after refusing to rule one out throughout the week. Other Democrats whose votes would likely be necessary — Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen of Nevada — told POLITICO Wednesday they won’t back a funding patch either.
“ICE is shutting down until we put guardrails,” Rosen said. “ICE should be acting with the same rules, uniform code of conduct, like the FBI and our state and local police … We are just asking what every other law enforcement agency abides by.”
ICE is among the DHS agencies that would be least affected by a shutdown. That’s because it receives a combination of mandatory funds, revenue from fees and billions of dollars from the GOP megabill President Donald Trump signed into law in 2025.
— Why a shutdown could drag: Congress is in recess next week, and several senators are eager to get out of town today to make it to the Munich Security Conference or to campaign in their home states — regardless of the state of DHS talks.
“I’m going to go home and I’m packing for Munich and I’m packing for Alaska,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said. “That’s my plan and I’m sticking to it.”
Once the shutdown starts, it could take weeks for the public to notice, giving lawmakers time before public pressure ramps up to end the standoff.
TSA screeners, for example, would miss their first full paychecks mid-March, leading to a gradual increase in wait times for travelers during the peak of spring break. FEMA has enough funds — about $7 billion — to buoy the agency for at least a month or two during a shutdown.
DHS officials could also pay active-duty Coast Guard members for several months using a pot of money from the 2025 megabill, which was replenished after last year’s shutdown ended. The Secret Service also received money from the legislation that it could tap in the event of a shutdown.
“It does take the public a longer time to figure it out,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told POLITICO Wednesday. “[But] I don’t know that the length of this, if there is a shutdown, is going to be based on how long it takes people to feel the effect. I think it’s more going to be governed by when we can find the reforms that are sufficient to people’s concerns.”
What else we’re watching:
— Rosen’s Epstein resolution: Rosen is introducing a resolution Thursday that would force senators to go on the record over whether President Donald Trump should grant clemency to Ghislaine Maxwell, convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s longtime associate.
If the resolution passes, it would be nonbinding but symbolically significant in declaring the Senate’s official position against a pardon or clemency for Maxwell, even as her attorney has dangled such a step in exchange for her testimony.
— Notable hearings: It’s the Senate Homeland Security panel’s turn to hear testimony from DHS officials, including Todd Lyons, acting director for ICE, at 9 a.m. The Senate Armed Services Committee will hear testimony from Defense Department officials on American drones at 9:30 a.m. And at 10 a.m., the crypto world will tune into SEC Chair Paul Atkins’ testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee as the industry pushes for a revamp of financial regulations.
Jordain Carney, Myah Ward, Mia McCarthy and Declan Harty contributed to this report.
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