A recent poll shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton narrowly leading the state’s Republican primary with just 1.5 points ahead of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).
Surveying 600 likely voters between January 31 and February 2, the J.L. Partners poll found that 27 percent of those surveyed supported Ken Paxton, followed Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) (25.7 percent), and Cornyn (25. 5 percent). Another 21.7 percent of those polled were undecided.
The revelation that Cornyn, a longtime incumbent senator, could miss the runoff election if he comes in third place in the race for his own seat is astounding.
As noted by the New York Post, the polls show a tightening in the race that has only slightly improved for Cornyn, who may miss the runoff election that will take place if no candidate reaches 50 percent. The top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff later in the spring:
The survey indicates the race has tightened from two months ago, when 29% of likely primary voters said they would back Paxton — while Hunt and Cornyn each hovered at around 24% support.
If no candidate clears the 50% threshold in the March 3 primary, the two Republicans who receive the most votes will head into a runoff election on May 26.
“With lots of different polls flying around from different sides, this poll provides one of the few unbiased takes out there,” said James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners.
“It shows Ken Paxton is beatable, with his lead narrowing to one point, but a three-way tie could yet gift him the primary,” added Johnson.
President Donald Trump has not yet issued an endorsement in the race, which would likely shift the winds in a candidate’s favor. It had been a two-way race between Paxton and Cornyn before Hunt joined in October.
“The contest would likely shift in Hunt’s favor if either Cornyn or Paxton drops out before primary day, J.L. Partners found,” added the NY Post.
A head-to-head matchup shows Hunt would best both Paxton and Cornyn at 44 percent to 34 percent.
“Though both John Cornyn and Wesley Hunt see improvements, it is Wesley Hunt who seems to have the most momentum: His favorability remains very high and — in a head-to-head — he beats Ken Paxton, while Cornyn loses,” Johnson added.
Interestingly, Paxton’s Super PAC has started attacking Hunt–possibly meaning Paxton’s top allies view Hunter as the bigger threat than Cornyn in the race:
Again, while there is still about a month to go before the primary, the fact that Cornyn is possibly heading for a third-place finish and getting knocked out of his own seat even before a runoff is earth-shattering for the political establishment. Cornyn’s allies in the GOP establishment in Washington have spent tens of millions of dollars trying to save him this year. Now, it could be Paxton and Hunt who face off later–time will tell what happens next.
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