A partial shutdown of multiple federal agencies is just 16 hours away as the Senate deals with a Lindsey Graham-sized snag and House Republicans face pressure from President Donald Trump to expedite whatever the other chamber sends their way.
Here’s the latest on the stop-start drama around the government funding deal:
— Graham’s revenge: It sure seemed like the Senate was ready to vote Thursday night after Trump and Democrats struck a compromise — enactment of five of the full-year appropriations bills and a two-week Homeland Security stopgap — to buy time for both sides to negotiate new guardrails for the administration’s immigration enforcement activities after the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis.
Then Graham made his move. He refused to go along with the plan over a House-backed provision that would repeal a law allowing senators to receive cash payouts if they had phone records seized by former special counsel Jack Smith — the South Carolina Republican included.
The Senate could move ahead as soon as Friday, though there are currently no votes on the schedule as leadership works to resolve holdups. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said there were issues coming from members of both parties, though Graham appears to be the main problem.
“Hopefully by sometime tomorrow we’ll be in a better spot,” Thune said leaving the Capitol Thursday night. “Tomorrow’s another day, and hopefully people will be in a spirit to try and get this done.”
— What’s next in the House: Assuming the Senate can send a funding package across the Capitol in short order, House GOP leaders are planning for a vote in their chamber as soon as Monday. Though if Trump wants a shorter partial shutdown, he could pressure Speaker Mike Johnson to call his members back earlier.
Rules Republicans will hold a call with Chair Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) at 9 a.m. Friday to discuss the process for bringing the revised funding package to the House floor. Then, the full House GOP conference will hold another call at 11 a.m., during which leaders are expected to try and rally support, according to three people granted anonymity to discuss private plans.
They’re likely to get an earful from hard-liners, who opposed separating DHS out from the larger funding package from the start and don’t want to negotiate with Democrats on restricting Trump’s deportation agenda.
Other Republicans could cause problems with their own eleventh-hour wish lists. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) is insisting the House amend the appropriations package to tack on the SAVE AMERICA Act, which would require proof of citizenship when registering to vote. That would require sending the funding legislation back to the Senate yet again, further prolonging a shutdown.
GOP leaders were already talking with some House Republican factions Thursday night about the funding deal in an effort to get members on board ahead of what’s expected to be a party-line procedural rule vote — and they’ll soon only have a one-vote margin majority.
If enough hard-liners hold up the bill during that vote, GOP leaders might look to pass it via suspension, which requires a two-thirds affirmative vote of members present.
— What that means for the DHS bill: Should the DHS stopgap make its way to Trump, two weeks could prove to be a tight window to sort through a host of tough asks from members who want to put their stamp on the full-year funding bill. Graham, for instance, is pushing for his bill to end sanctuary cities to be included in the revamped DHS measure.
Some Republicans are bracing for the possibility of another weekslong funding patch for DHS if a deal isn’t reached by mid-February, with Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) predicting that “part of the government is just going to stay shut down” indefinitely.
But Republicans’ biggest fear is it could all end with Democrats jamming the GOP with their demands, which include tighter warrant rules, a ban on masks and a requirement for body cameras and independent investigations.
What else we’re watching:
— Johnson’s margin narrows: This Saturday’s special election runoff in Texas between two Democrats vying to fill the seat left vacant by late-Rep. Sylvester Turner will cut further into Johnson’s already-tiny margin — and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is warning the speaker not to delay the winner’s swearing-in.
Whoever wins the seat — either Amanda Edwards or Christian Menefee — will, once seated, bring the balance of the House to 218-214. When that happens, Johnson will only be able to afford a single defection on party-line votes, which could be especially critical next week assuming government funding legislation heads back to the House.
Meredith Lee Hill and Calen Razor contributed to this report.
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