More than twice as many Russian soldiers have been killed than Ukrainians in the course of the Ukraine war so far and the conflict is close to hitting two million casualties, analysis claims.
Russia is suffering “massive numbers of fatalities and total casualties” and the “blood cost” of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine turning into a protracted war is becoming a “Russian vulnerability”, a report on the state of military losses in the war by the Center for Strategic and International Studies claims.
The total number of military casualties for both sides continues to rise and, at present rates of loss, will hit two million this Spring, they claimed. Included in this are approximately 1.2 million Russian casualties including killed in action, wounded, and mission, with 415,000 new casualties in 2025 alone.
Of those 1.2 million casualties since February 2022, it is estimated that between 275,000 and 325,000 Russian troops have been killed, the report states. This is a considerable number; is it more than all American battlefield deaths in Korea, Vietnam, Gulf War, Afghanistan and Iraq combined, and is five times higher than all Russian-Soviet wars since the Second World War combined.
While Russia’s population is considerably larger than Ukraine’s, it is also trading life and limb of its soldiers for battlefield progress the CSIS analysis states has become incredibly slow. Far from the early lightning-war strikes into Ukraine in 2022, the rate of advance in recent months is now said to be slower than Britain’s at the Somme or America at Belleau Wood in the Great War.
As long reported, Western scrutiny of battlefield casualties in the war has focussed more intensely on Russia than on Ukraine, but nevertheless the CSIS report states Ukraine’s troops have fared better, with the kill ratio two-to-one or even as high as two-and-a-half-to-one, meaning that if correct, five Russians have died for every two Ukrainians so far.
In all, the CSIS report stated: “despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power.”
Looking to the future, the report prognosticated trouble brewing for Russia should the time comes when it disbands its wartime-size military and sends soldiers home. The CSIS observed: “Russia will likely face a major challenge from the return of tens of thousands of soldiers, including many violent offenders and individuals who have faced traumatic combat experience. Russian military veterans that have returned from fighting in Ukraine have already perpetrated a growing number of violent crimes—including murders—against Russian civilians.”
Combat trauma and post-traumatic stress disorder is not unique to the Russian experience, however, and it is well publicised that Ukraine has also sought to boost its combat strength by emptying its prisons, suggesting a rocky future awaits both.
The grim two million casualty milestone rapidly approaching is a significant advance on the 1.4 million casualties reckoned in Summer 2025. The CSIS-given fatality ratio of two-to-one is also considerably out of kilter with Kyiv’s own reckoning on battlefield casualties, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky implying last year that nearly eight times as many Russian soldiers had died as Ukrainian.
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