The shutdown vibes are shifting.
As POLITICO first reported Wednesday, bipartisan Senate negotiations around reopening the government have ramped up over the past 36 hours. But it’s far from a done deal. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told POLITICO as he left the building Wednesday night that the conversations aren’t close enough that he expects the Senate to stay in town past Thursday.
“There’s no great magic in how we get out of this,” says Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). “It’s the same stuff we’ve been talking about for months.”
Here’s what needs to be addressed as the shutdown enters what could be its home stretch:
NEW DEADLINE — With Nov. 21 just three weeks away, lawmakers will have to extend the end-date for legislation to keep the government open. GOP leaders are eyeing a continuing resolution that would stretch somewhere between mid-January to March.
FISCAL 2026 APPROPS BILLS — Appropriators would prefer an earlier CR deadline, as they keep hope alive for more comprehensive funding bills that would take up more of the federal fiscal year.
Conversations continue around a potential agreement that would include a deal to advance a minibus encompassing agriculture, veterans and legislative branch funding, followed by a second package pairing defense funding with labor and health appropriations. Senators want to add funding bills covering transportation, housing, the Commerce Department and DOJ to that second package if they can get clearance from their members.
Those could move as soon as next week if Congress is able to first reopen the government.
RIFS AND RESCISSIONS — Democrats want commitments that the White House won’t continue mass firings of federal workers and that Republicans won’t seek further funding clawbacks through rescissions bills.
Some Democrats involved in the talks tell us they believe enough Senate Republicans would oppose a rescissions package. But a Trump administration commitment on layoffs is a “different matter,” says Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.).
“That is something that John Thune cannot pledge to me,” Kaine says. “I mean he would do it if he could, but that’s for the White House to pledge.”
HEALTH CARE — Democrats haven’t yet accepted the GOP offer for an Obamacare subsidy vote after the government reopens, but those involved in negotiations tell us they believe progress is being made. A meeting with Trump to talk about subsidies is also on the table for as soon as next week. Some Democrats want a working group to address Affordable Care Act issues.
Republicans are working on their own health care package for later this year that could include a possible ACA extension with new restrictions in preparation for bipartisan negotiations, as we’ve reported.
One House Republican granted anonymity to share ongoing leadership discussions said “everything has been discussed” on what that package would even be attached to, but there are fewer options as time goes on. New Obamacare restrictions, such as income verification or income caps, are being considered, the member said.
What else we’re watching:
— Schumer dodges on Mamdani: With Election Day less than a week away and early voting already live in New York City’s mayoral race, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is holding off on supporting Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani. “I have a good relationship with him, and we’re continuing to talk,” Schumer told reporters Wednesday, sidestepping a question about whether he’d vote for Mamdani.
— Final straw for farm-state Republicans: Trump’s plans to import beef from Argentina has proved to be the breaking point for farm-state Republicans who have kept quiet for months about the toll of the administration’s sweeping tariffs. Meanwhile those frustrations are also playing out on the Senate floor this week on a series of votes to undo some of Trump’s global tariffs. And next week, the Supreme Court begins hearing oral arguments in a high-stakes challenge to Trump’s emergency tariff powers.
— Ex-Im nominee withdraws: Bryce McFerran, Trump’s pick for a top position at the Export-Import Bank, has withdrawn from consideration after facing scrutiny from Democrats over his ties to Russian companies. The move comes ahead of a Senate Banking nomination hearing that was scheduled for Thursday.
Meredith Lee Hill, Katherine Hapgood and Jasper Goodman contributed to this report.
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