Trump’s plan to outgun China is colliding with a shipbuilding industry that’s all rust and no steel
By Ilya Kramnik, military analyst, expert at the Russian International Affairs Council and researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations
According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), US President Donald Trump plans to upgrade the country’s Navy, which will be rebranded as the “Golden Fleet.”
It’s well known that the current state of the US Navy does not meet existing challenges, let alone those that could arise in a potential conflict with China. American politicians and naval experts have discussed this issue for years.
During his first presidential term, Trump aimed to significantly enhance the fleet and increase its size to 355 major vessels (currently there are around 290). Now, Trump has proposed even more radical ideas. The “Golden Fleet” will help the US counter adversaries, especially China’s growing naval power.
Details about the new naval program and the number of ships to be built are still unclear; however, according to reports, Trump has called for the development of a large armored ship capable of carrying a significant missile payload.
This ship will also boast greater survivability compared to America’s current combat ships, which lack adequate armor. Additionally, there are plans to build smaller vessels – such as corvettes – that would be more numerous and less expensive than the modified Arleigh Burke-class destroyers currently under construction for the US Navy.
However, the contemporary state of American shipbuilding complicates such plans. Issues like outdated technology, labor shortages, and challenges with established projects cast doubt on both domestic initiatives and the ability to support allies – such as constructing submarines for Australia. This means that catching up with China and its People’s Liberation Army Navy may prove challenging for the US. This is true both in regard to existing projects and new ones, particularly considering past setbacks.
The root of the problem lies in the overall decline of American shipbuilding, which was once the strongest in the world but has lost ground to European competitors, then to Japan and South Korea, and now to China. Currently, the US accounts for less than 0.13% of global commercial shipbuilding, while China dominates with a staggering 60%. Consequently, military shipbuilding, which once drew talent and resources from the commercial sector, now finds itself in limbo. Today, America’s commercial shipbuilding volumes are even lower than Russia’s, marking what can only be described as a severe systemic crisis.
In such circumstances, will the US be able to develop a new missile cruiser? For now, it’s still struggling with the new frigate.
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