A report released on Wednesday found that Republicans could garner 19 additional congressional districts if the Supreme Court were to void part of a civil rights-era law.
The Supreme Court will rehear Louisiana v. Callais, a case that could result in the elimination of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, a provision that bars “racial gerrymandering when it dilutes minority voting power,” according to Politico.
Newsweek explains it like this:
Section 2 of the VRA prohibits any voting practice or districting plan that results in racial or language-minority voters having less opportunity than others to participate in the political process and elect candidates of their choice.
The dispute, consolidated with Robinson v. Callais, stems from Louisiana’s 2022 redistricting and raises fundamental questions about how states balance the protection of minority voters with constitutional limits on race-based decision-making.
At the center is Louisiana’s congressional map known as Senate Bill 8, adopted after a federal court ordered creation of a second majority-Black district to remedy “vote dilution” under Section 2. That court later struck SB8 down, concluding it amounted to a racial gerrymander that “violates the Equal Protection Clause” of the Fourteenth Amendment.
A report from Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter Fund, two Democrat voting rights groups, said that a victory at the nation’s highest court guarantee a Republican majority.
Politico wrote:
While a ruling in time for next year’s midterms is unlikely, the organizations behind the report said that it’s not out of the question. Taken together, the groups identified 27 total seats that Republicans could redistrict in their favor ahead of the midterms — 19 of which stem from Section 2 being overturned.
Doing so would “clear the path for a one-party system where power serves the powerful and silences the people,” Black Voters Matter Fund co-founder LaTosha Brown said in a statement.
If Section 2 were scrapped, the groups believe that up 30 percent of the Congressional Black Caucus and 11 percent of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus could lose their seats from redistricting.
A favorable result for Republicans in the Supreme Court could lead to massive changes in redistricting across Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Mississippi. Louisiana, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and Florida would likely retain at least one Democrat member.
Fair Fight Action CEO Lauren Groh-Wargo said in a statement that voiding Section 2 would do “permanent” damage.
“The only way to stop it is to play offense — aggressively redraw maps wherever possible, focus relentlessly on taking back Congress, and be ready to use that power to pass real pro-democracy legislation and hold this corrupted Court accountable,” she said.
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