The Labor Department said it would suspend publication of the monthly jobs report and other major economic data if the government shuts down, including the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, cutting off critical information for businesses, investors and policymakers.
In a contingency plan published Friday, the department said nearly all employees of the Bureau of Labor Statistics would be furloughed during a shutdown. That would prevent the release of the September employment report scheduled for Friday as well as October’s CPI and PPI reports, which provide key readings on inflation.
The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is set for the end of October. If a shutdown is still underway, officials would lack the government’s most authoritative data on employment and prices, forcing them to set interest rates with limited visibility into the economy.
The Labor Department employs about 12,900 people. Under the plan, roughly 3,100 would remain on duty, mostly to carry out functions deemed necessary to protect life, property, or funded through sources not tied to annual appropriations. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics would suspend “all program operations,” the plan said.
The jobs report, formally the Employment Situation Summary, is one of the government’s most closely watched releases, offering a monthly snapshot of hiring, unemployment and wages. CPI and PPI are the main official measures of consumer and wholesale inflation. Together, these reports guide Federal Reserve policy decisions and influence financial markets.
Other Labor Department functions would also be curtailed. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration would stop routine inspections, continuing only investigations involving imminent threats. Unemployment insurance benefits would continue to be paid through state programs, and workers’ compensation programs funded outside the annual appropriations process would remain in operation.
The JOLTS report on job openings and labor turnover is due Tuesday and will be published as scheduled, but the next installment would not be released if a shutdown continued.
Shutdown plans are mandated by the White House budget office and updated regularly. The Labor Department’s latest plan, dated Sept. 26, reflects how even short interruptions in funding can ripple across the economy by cutting off streams of information that markets and policymakers depend upon.
Historically, whether the jobs report appears during a shutdown has depended on BLS funding. In the 1995–96 shutdowns, BLS operations were interrupted and the Employment Situation was delayed. In October 2013, when BLS halted operations, the September jobs report slated for Oct. 4 was pushed to Oct. 22 and the release calendar was reset after reopening. By contrast, during the 2018–19 partial shutdown BLS remained funded and operated as usual, so jobs reports were released on schedule.
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