Republicans claim the GOP megabill, coupled with President Donald Trump’s tariff and immigration policies, will “unleash economic growth.” Congress’ nonpartisan scorekeeper says not so much.
The Congressional Budget Office’s new economic estimates released Friday predict that over the next three years, policies implemented this year by Trump and the Republican-led Congress will have little effect on growth before the 2028 election.
That’s because Trump’s tariff policies and crackdown on immigration are estimated to cool the economy this year, more than outweighing any growth spurred by the tax and spending package Republicans turned into law this summer.
By next year, CBO expects that balance to change some, as the effects of the megabill begin to outweigh the negative economic impact of tariffs and immigration policy, pushing GDP growth higher than previously predicted.
Then, in the lead-up to the 2028 presidential election, the combination of the GOP policies are estimated to be mostly a wash for economic growth.
In 2027 and 2028, the GOP megabill’s boost to demand will wane as reduced immigration hits the labor force, acting “as a drag on growth,” the budget office predicts. Higher tariffs, however, will partially offset that hit, driving increased domestic production.
The result: As voters head to the polls in November 2028, the level of real GDP will be just 0.1 percent higher than predicted before Trump took office.
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