Democrat James Walkinshaw is projected to win the special election for the vacant 11th Congressional District seat in Virginia.
The Associated Press called the race for Walkinshaw at 7:36 pm EST, with the Democrat romping over Republican Stewart Whitson, a veteran and former FBI official.
Walkinshaw, a Fairfax County supervisor in the solid blue Washington DC suburb in Northern Virginia, was projected to easily win the seat of his former boss, Rep. Gerry Connolly, who died in office in May.
With over 88 percent of the vote tallied, Walkinshaw had captured 99,049 votes to Whitson’s 33,326 – a staggering 74.9% to 25.1%.
Yet that wide margin of victory is not the most troubling margin for Republicans.
Once Walkinshaw is sworn in later in the week, House Republicans’ majority will shrink, giving Republicans only a 219 to 213 advantage – meaning only two Republican defections in an otherwise party line vote would deny Speaker Mike Johnson a vote.
Johnson faces many obstacles ahead, including a critical government funding vote before the September 30 deadline and government funding votes in the months afterward. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who has consistently voted against Johnson and President Donald Trump’s agenda, is expected to be a no on those votes (and others), meaning Johnson has no margin for error.
Special elections, occurring in isolation, are often given outsize important by national media desperate for electoral drama during the campaign dry season.
Many establishment media outlets predictably framed Walkinshaw’s easy victory in the safe Democrat seat as a referendum on Trump.
Yet Walkinshaw will join a House Democratic Caucus bereft of leadership, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) under fire from his own membership amid an ongoing search for Democrat leadership on the national stage. Senate Democrat Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is also under fire from his own party, as self-interested governors and other Democrat politicians jockey for the still-distant presidential nomination.
With Trump astutely pressing what he sees as 80-20 issues like the need to stop crime in cities and national Democrats lacking leadership and messaging, House Democrats must find a way to turn Tuesday’s small victory into something more meaningful.
If not, Walkinshaw might remain in the minority for another electoral cycle.
Bradley Jaye is Deputy Political Editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter and Instagram @BradleyAJaye.
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