Yet another French government appears on the brink of falling as a go-for-broke gambit from Prime Minister François Bayrou to call for a vote of confidence ahead of the budget fight appears set for failure as opposition right and left parties look to vote down the government.
After just over eight months since coming to power — after the quick collapse of his predecessor over a similar budget fight — Prime Minister Bayrou will leave the fate of his faltering government in the hands of the National Assembly with a confidence vote on September 8th. The liberal Macronist politician thus has two weeks to convince either the Socialist Party or Marine Le Pen’s National Rally to back his government and its proposed austerity measures.
Warning of a “curse” on the French economy, the PM said in a press conference on Monday: “Our country is in danger because we are on the verge of over-indebtedness.”
“For 20 years, every hour of every day and every night has increased the debt by an additional 12 million euros,” Bayrou said per Le Figaro.
The prime minister has put forward a raft of deeply unpopular proposals to cut the French government’s budget by €44 billion (£38bn/$51bn) next year, including tax hikes, benefits cuts, and a reduction in the number of federal holidays.
It comes amid soaring debt — in part a result of draconian lockdown measures and stat subsidies during the Chinese coronavairus crisis — which during the first quarter of this year rose to 114 per cent of GDP. If Paris fails to reduce its debt and budget deficits — which rose to 5.8 per cent of GDP last year — the country faces potential sanctions from the European Union.
However, opponents, such as populist National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, have argued that Bayrou’s mooted tax hikes and budget cuts will stifle economic growth and disproportionately impact the working class, and thereby exacerbate the economic woes of the nation.
In response to the confidence vote announcement by the PM on Monday, Le Pen said: “François Bayrou clearly has not understood that the French are fully aware of the economic and financial crisis in which our country is plunged after eight years of Macronism, a crisis that adds to so many other failures jeopardising the very survival of our nation.
“It is precisely because they have understood the gravity of the situation that our compatriots reject the Prime Minister’s measures, as unjust as they are ineffective. Our fellow citizens also know who is responsible for this collapse, namely the establishment parties that we have been fighting for so many years: the left, the right, and the Macronists.”
Therefore the National Rally leader said that her party will vote against the government in the confidence vote with the aim of forcing President Macron to disolve the current parliament and bring about fresh legislative elections. A dissolution may finally break the three-way deadlock in the legislature, which resulted from Macron making a controversial electoral pact with the far-left New Popular Front last year to keep Le Pen and her allies taking control of the National Assembly.
The decision by Le Pen to do call for new elections likely did not come lightly, given that she may be personally prohibited from standing to retain her own seat in the National Assembly given a ruling earlier this year imposing a five-year ban on the RN leader from running in elections. While the case is currently under appeal, the election ban remains in place. However, it is likely that Le Pen would try to file another emergency appeal should elections be called.
With the National Rally — the largest single party in the Assembly — announcing its intentions to vote down the government and the hard left La France Insoumise (France in Rebellion) of Jean-Luc Mélenchon already vowing to collapse the government, Bayrou appeared to be pinning his hopes on the Soclialist Party defecting from its leftist allies and supporting the government.
However, potentially sealing Bayrou’s fate, Socialist leader Olivier Faure said late on Monday evening that it would be “unimaginable that the socialists vote confidence in the prime minister.”
Should Bayrou fall, it would mark the fourth government to collapse since 2024 and the second to be ousted by the parliament since last year when former EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier’s government fell to a no confidence vote after just three months in office following an attempt to pass a budget without the consent of the parliament.
Although some in the centrist camp praised the PM for his “courage” in calling for the confidence vote, others were less convinced and pushed for President Macron to appoint a new prime minister rather than calling for fresh elections. Another Macronist MP, Nicole Dubré-Chirat, is reported to have remarked with despair over the move that Bayrou “is suicidal”.
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