The odds of a U.S. recession have fallen to their lowest level ever recorded on Polymarket, dropping from 70 percent in late April to just 19 percent this week.
The shift follows weeks of economic data indicating continued strength in consumer activity. According to Breitbart Business Digest, “Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8 percent in the first quarter, beating forecasts for 1.2 percent. Durable goods, services, and nondurables all contributed.” Additionally, rising consumer spending, along with stable inflation and real income gains, pointed to underlying momentum in the economy despite the first-quarter GDP contraction.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in March he did not expect a recession, attributing this to $1.3 trillion in new investment and President Trump’s tariff policy. “There’s going to be no recession in America,” Lutnick stated. “You’re going to see over the next two years the greatest set of growth coming from America as Americans.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed a similar view in May, telling Congress that the initial 0.3 percent GDP contraction may be revised upward. “There is nothing in the data that shows that we are in a recession,” Bessent remarked, citing a detailed analysis and stronger-than-expected job growth.
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