U.S. import prices rose modestly in June, suggesting little evidence of inflationary pressure from foreign-sourced goods, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The import price index increased 0.1 percent last month, following a downwardly revised 0.4 percent decline in May. Over the past year, import prices have declined 0.2 percent, marking the second straight month of year-over-year contraction and reinforcing a trend of broad price stability in traded goods.
Economists had forecast a stronger 0.2 percent increase for the month and for the year, indicating the analysts continue to overestimate price pressures.
Fuel imports continued to decline, falling 0.7 percent in June, driven by a 26.8 percent drop in natural gas prices, which more than offset a slight uptick in petroleum. Fuel prices are down 15.7 percent compared with a year earlier.
Excluding fuel, import prices rose 0.1 percent in June, led by higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and consumer goods, which increased 0.7 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. Capital goods prices were flat, and automotive vehicles declined 0.1 percent.
Export prices rose 0.5 percent in June, the strongest monthly gain since March, driven by increases in both agricultural and nonagricultural goods. Agricultural export prices climbed 0.8 percent, while nonagricultural exports rose 0.5 percent, supported by higher prices for petroleum, chemicals, and metals.
The three-month annualized rate of import price changes stands at –0.8 percent, further underscoring the absence of upward pricing pressure from international suppliers.
Import prices are measured before tariffs or customs duties are applied, capturing the price paid by U.S. buyers at the point of export from the foreign seller. As a result, the index reflects changes in the prices set by foreign producers or negotiated by importers, but not any additional cost imposed by U.S. trade policy.
Prices for imports from China rose 0.5 percent in June—the first monthly gain since 2022—but remain down 2.2 percent year over year. Import prices from the European Union and Japan also increased, while prices from Canada and Mexico declined slightly.
The data offer little indication that import prices are contributing meaningfully to inflation, supporting the view that global supply chains remain relatively stable and competitive despite shifting trade dynamics.
Read the full article here