Prime Minister François Bayrou’s government is facing the prospect of being toppled like its predecessor, with the Socialist Party vowing to launch a motion of no confidence after negotiations broke down over President Macron’s controversial pension reforms.
Paris looks set to be embroiled in political chaos once again after a brief reprieve since the start of the year, as the consequences of Macron’s cynical political manoeuvres come to the fore.
Three governments prior, in March 2023, then-Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne invoked Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to steamroll President Macron’s contentious plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 without a vote in the National Assembly.
The move, decried by the populist right and leftist parties alike as anti-democratic and an attack on the working class, sparked months of riots and labour union strikes and critically damaged the credibility of the Borne government. While her government managed to limp along for several months, Gabriel Attal ultimately replaced her in January of the following year.
Attal, once pitched as the heir-apparent to Macron, who is still in search of a successor after he is term-limited out in 2027, failed to last even a full year in office and was forced to resign in the wake of Macron’s disastrous decision to call for snap legislative elections in the wake of his party’s embarrassing defeat at the EU elections to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally.
Macron cynically sided with the New Popular Front coalition of far-left and leftist parties in the second round of voting to block Le Pen and her populist party from taking control of the National Assembly. This resulted in the parliament falling into a three-way split, with no faction having a clear mandate to govern the country.
Macron attempted to bridge the gap by turning to veteran Républicains politician and former Eurocrat Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier as a compromise prime minister. However, rather than negotiating a settlement on the budget crisis and demands to repeal the pension age legislation, Barnier once again turned to Article 49.3 to try to push through his budget without a vote in the National Assembly.
Yet, Barnier was ultimately thwarted, as Le Pen’s National Rally sensationally joined with the leftist NPF to censure and topple his government, the first to fall in such a manner since 1962. After lasting just 90 days in office, Barnier was replaced by Macronist ally and current PM François Bayrou, who now also faces the prospect of censure, just seven months after being installed in the Hôtel Matignon.
With the National Assembly remaining in an apparently ungovernable three-way split, Bayrou has attempted to outsource contentious issues, including the use of a “conclave” of business owners, labour unions, and others to try to come to a compromise on the issue of pension reform.
While this has allowed the government to sidestep controversy since the start of the year, negotiations broke down on Tuesday, likely forcing the government to either retry the Borne/Barnier method or actually put up the pension age for a vote in the National Assembly.
Yet, despite the deeply divided parliament, there is consensus among Le Penists and leftists on the issue of overturning the retirement age increase, meaning that the government would likely lose such a vote. This, Macron and his allies fear, would further hinder the government’s ability to pass a budget in line with requirements from Brussels, and France faces EU penalties for its high spending ratio.
The Socialist Party had broken ranks with their far-left counterparts in the New Popular Front, agreeing to give Bayrou time to find a compromise. However, on Tuesday, they rescinded this support and said that if the PM refuses to put the pension age up for a vote, they would table a motion of censure.
Justifying the move to seek to topple the government, Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure accused Bayrou of “sabotaging” his own conclave by giving unnecessary concessions to business owners and by failing to live up to his commitment to give a final say on the matter to the parliament.
Due to parliamentary scheduling, it is unlikely that the motion will be formally put up for a vote before July 1st, according to Le Monde. Unless Bayrou is able to pull out a last-minute compromise, the attention will likely shift to the National Rally of Marine Le Pen. Although the RN also opposes the pension reforms, it is unclear if they will once again side with the left to take down the government.
Keeping his cards close to his vest, National Rally President Jordan Bardella said Tuesday that his party would not rule out backing the Socialists’ censure motion. However, he indicated that the populist party may bide its time — while retaining maximum leverage over the government — until the Fall budget fight before deciding on taking down the government.
“The real moment of truth for this government will be the budget vote at the start of the new session. I wouldn’t bet a penny on the longevity of this government if it keeps pushing for tax hikes on the French, especially working France,” Bardella said.
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