The White House is stepping up its efforts to sell the GOP megabill ahead of an impending Senate vote.
The legislation is far from finalized, but the Council of Economic Advisers is sending its first analysis of the Senate bill to Congress Wednesday. The report obtained by POLITICO is based on the Senate Finance Committee draft released last week.
The analysis contrasts the economic and fiscal impact of the party’s signature domestic policy legislation with letting President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts expire at the end of the year — a cliff Senate GOP leaders and the White House are leaning into as they try to sway their holdouts.
“The [One Big Beautiful Bill Act] will establish a strong foundation for economic prosperity by increasing investment, raising GDP, and boosting resources for American families in the form of higher wages and a lower tax burden,” the CEA wrote in its analysis.
The Senate tax plan would create more than $100 billion in investment and more than 1 million new jobs over the 10-year budget window, according to the report. It’s also estimating the economic growth sparked by the tax plan would create between $2.1 to $2.3 trillion in deficit reduction, as well as help decrease the overall debt.
The analysis is significantly rosier than projections from most other economists, who doubt that the Republican plan will do much for growth because the tax breaks for businesses — which have the most potential economic oomph — are relatively small, especially compared to the 2017 bill. Their tax package this time around is much more focused on cutting taxes for individuals while piling on debt that most economists believe will push up interest rates and create a drag on growth.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office hasn’t yet released a full estimate for the Senate legislation, but it recently analyzed the economic effects of the House-passed bill and concluded that any government revenues sparked by growth due to the bill would be swamped by higher debt-service costs prompted by higher interest rates.
In a boon for Majority Leader John Thune, Finance Chair Mike Crapo and other Finance Committee Republicans, the White House analysis found that making some of the business tax cuts permanent would boost investment and increase wages. Permanency is a top priority for Thune, Crapo and others, who have made the case to both the House and the White House that it is worth including even though it comes with a higher price tag.
Senate Republicans are likely to use the analysis to tout their legislation — and to rebut CBO when it releases its own findings. The CEA gave a similarly positive overview of the House’s bill earlier this year, which Speaker Mike Johnson has frequently used to argue that the bill won’t add to the national debt. That has not prevented House fiscal hawks from finding fault in it, even as they voted for it; Thune & Co. are facing similar doubts from their own conservative bloc.
Brian Faler contributed to this report.
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