Saudi international relations expert Dr. Salem Alyami told Saudi news network Al Arabiya on Wednesday that the Kingdom’s major diplomatic concern at the moment is containing the Iran-Israel conflict to keep the rest of the Middle East from destabilizing.
Interestingly, while Alyami threw in a few perfunctory shots at Israel for conducting a “blatant attack on a sovereign state,” his analysis did not suggest a great deal of genuine outrage at Israel, or concern for the fate of Iran, among Saudi government officials. The Saudis and their Gulf allies are calling for “de-escalation,” but no one seems eager to step forward and save the Iranians from obliteration.
This attitude would have been no surprise a decade ago, when the Saudis and Iranians were regional rivals on the verge of becoming all-out enemies, but they supposedly mended fences in 2023 through meetings brokered by China. The Chinese touted the Saudi-Iran rapprochement as a massive diplomatic triumph and a sign that Beijing had become a major force in global diplomacy.
Today, the Saudis are witnessing Israel dismantle the Iranian military with roughly the same sense of urgency as Willy Wonka watching Augustus Gloop sink into a river of chocolate. Alyami’s analysis hinted the Saudis are growing exasperated with Iran’s stubborn insistence on enriching uranium, even in the face of devastating Israeli airstrikes.
Bloomberg News reported on Thursday that Saudi Foreign Minister Faisan bin Farhan met with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, in Norway last week and strongly advised the Iranians to make a nuclear deal with the Trump administration quickly, or else Israel could attack. Iran decided to keep playing games with negotiations, and two days later Israel was bombing Iran.
According to Bloomberg, the Arab states were surprised by the speed and potency of Israel’s attack, because they thought President Trump would “restrain” the Israelis to keep his prized nuclear negotiations rolling.
Richard Weitz of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, told Al Arabiya the Saudis value their “status as a strategic partner of the United States” too much to invest any serious diplomatic capital in trying to save Iran’s nuclear program:
In comments made to Al Arabiya, Weitz also rejects the idea that Saudi Arabia’s role is limited to the current Iran-Israel tensions. He notes that Riyadh has not lost sight of the Gaza conflict, even as the world’s attention shifts elsewhere. He points to Saudi Arabia’s statement on Tuesday at the United Nations in Geneva, where Ambassador Abdulmohsen bin Khothaila condemned Israeli violations, settlement expansions, and the ongoing disregard for international laws and conventions.
Weitz argues that US policy may soon require Saudi intervention, given Riyadh’s strong regional influence. He points to Saudi Arabia’s past diplomatic successes – from mediating in Sudan and defusing tensions between India and Pakistan, to brokering talks between Russia and Ukraine.
The Saudis could have a lot to gain by preserving their image as level-headed intermediaries between the Western world and Middle Eastern powers. They could also have a lot to lose if the conflict spreads.
The Financial Times (FT) on Thursday noted that the Arab monarchies are keen to “avoid being engulfed in the war,” particularly if the United States gets involved, and Iran seeks revenge by lobbing missiles at U.S. bases on Gulf State territory.
Much of that territory is much closer to Iran than Israel is, so the Iranians could hit them with a large inventory of short-range missiles. Iran could also “strangle their oil and gas exports” by attempting to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
Small increases in oil prices are manageable, and maybe even beneficial, to the Gulf states – but not if they lose the ability to ship their oil through the Persian Gulf, or if worldwide anxiety from a widening conflict destroys consumer confidence and pushes the demand for energy down.
Looming large in the memory of Gulf leaders is the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure by the Houthi insurgents of Yemen in 2019. Iran supplied the Houthis with missiles and drones, and almost certainly signed off on the 2019 strike, or perhaps even ordered it. The Saudis have reportedly been telling Iran they will respond to any attack on the oil infrastructure of Gulf states, either directly or through proxies like the Houthis.
Although the Gulf monarchies generally have good relations with President Donald Trump, they are reportedly worried about his “unpredictability” and “concerned that the U.S. would not be fully committed to their protection, should they be dragged into war.”
“Some observers do not believe Iran would risk further isolation and retaliation by inflicting pain on Gulf states. Tehran’s military has also been badly weakened by Israel’s attacks. But Gulf states still fear that US military action would aggravate an already inflamed region and put their détente with Iran at risk,” the FT reported.
“The Gulf wants to focus on its hotels, AI and golf courses and wanted to get rid of this Iran problem by bringing them into the fold — that’s where things were a week ago. Their biggest fear is that they are the soft underbelly if Trump gets involved,” former CIA chief of Middle East operations Ted Singer told Bloomberg News.
According to Bloomberg’s report, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is sufficiently worried about the risk of fallout from destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities that they have activated an Emergency Management Center to monitor radiation levels coming from sites like the Iranian nuclear power plant at Bushehr.
Another worrying type of fallout would be the political and religious impact of the Iranian theocracy collapsing. Many of the Sunni Gulf states have large, restless Shiite Muslim populations that might become very agitated if Israel brings down the Shiite “superpower.”
“The message from Arab states to Washington is simple and direct: We all want a peaceful, quiet, and moderate Middle East driven by business and economic interests. This will all be lost if Israel and Iran continue the war. This conflict will undo all our painstaking progress towards stability, progress, and peace,” said a Gulf diplomat quoted by the Christian Science Monitor on Tuesday.
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