The sweeping domestic policy package House Republicans passed last month would increase the U.S. deficit by $2.8 trillion over a decade when considering economic effects, according to Congress’ nonpartisan scorekeeper.
That’s above the $2.4 trillion price tag the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated in a prior analysis that did not factor in how the legislation would change interest rates, inflation and economic growth. Republicans have anticipated the new “dynamic” analysis would include significant growth effects, reducing the overall fiscal impact of the Republican megabill.
CBO did find that the legislation would modestly boost economic growth over a decade, by 0.5 percent on average. But those effects would be swamped by the costs of higher interest rates, forecasters found, which would boost payments on the national debt by an estimated $440 billion over that time. Over five years, inflation would increase “by a small amount” because of the bill, the budget office predicts.
Senate Republicans are racing now to finalize changes to the House-passed version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” they want to send to President Donald Trump’s desk by July 4 to enact the president’s biggest campaign-trail promises.
In a separate “distributional” analysis last week, CBO forecast that the House bill would cause the lowest-income households in the United States to lose $1,600 a year in federal resources, while increasing resources by $12,000 for the highest-income households.
Democrats are using CBO’s predictions to fuel their attacks against the package. The new report published Tuesday “will disappoint every Republican who hoped tax breaks for billionaires would magically pay for themselves,” said Pennsylvania Rep. Brendan Boyle, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee.
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