Analysis of government data suggests the United Kingdom will be minority white British within just 40 years, a report by Professor Matt Goodwin states, with nearly half of people in the country a migrant or a child of a migrant by the end of the century.
White British people with two white British parents will become a minority in the United Kingdom by 2063, falling from 73 per cent of the country today, social scientist Professor Matt Goodwin had said in a new report Demographic Change and the Future of the United Kingdom: 2022-2122.
The remarkable pace of change in the United Kingdom will continue, the report predicts, stating the proportion of white Britons in their own country will fall to just 22.7 per cent by the end of the century.
The paper is one of the first from the Centre for Heterodox Social Science at the University of Buckingham, launched in early 2024. Professor Goodwin, once an academic examining the right from the outside who appears to have come to the conclusion at least some of their talking points merit further interest said in a comment on the paper: “What these projections show is that the UK is currently on course to experience enormous and historically unprecedented changes in the composition of its population.
By the end of this century, he said: “people who were born in the UK and can trace their roots back over several generations will represent only around four in ten people, compared to eight in ten today, and one in five people will be Muslim, all of which raises profound questions about the capacity of the UK state to both absorb and manage this scale of demographic change.”
The report itself noted growing public interest in demographic change, fuelled not only by persistently high, ahistorical levels of migrant arrivals but also “growing awareness about the country’s declining birth-rate and looming demographic crisis”.
Professor Goodwin’s prediction is only the latest in a series of such prognostications this century, which have shown a propensity to shorten the time horizon to a British minority as time goes on, likely given the unforeseen acceleration of migrant arrivals. The Observer, a left-wing newspaper, reported in September 2000 that “UK whites” would be a minority a century hence in 2100, for instance, stating then:
Whites will be an ethnic minority in Britain by the end of the century… It would be the first time in history that a major indigenous population has voluntarily become a minority, rather than through war, famine or disease… In the early 1950s there were only a few tens of thousands of non-whites in the UK. By 1991 that had risen to 3 million – 6 per cent of the population…
By 2016, Professor David Coleman the Oxford University demographer said “the highest immigration in our history” is transforming the “ethnic make-up into something quite new”. This would mean, he said then, “the White British population would cease to be the majority in the UK by the late 2060s.”
Yet even before the epoch-defining “Boriswave” migration wave unleashed on the United Kingdom in the past five years, Professor Coleman warned if high levels of migration persisted, the 2060s date wouldn’t hold. He wrote in 2016: “should current high levels of immigration persist for any length of time, that date would move closer to the present. Britain would then become unrecognisable to its present inhabitants… ‘Finis Britanniae’.”
Last year, demographer Dr Paul Morland also made a prediction, saying white British would be the minority in the United Kingdom by the 2050s — now just 25 years distant.
Indeed, recent history has shown demographic predictions in the United Kingdom can tend to under-estimate the pace of change. The best-known example of this is London itself, which became minority white British decades earlier than thought, as accelerating migrant arrivals coincided with unanticipated levels of white flight.
Some 60 per cent of Londoners were white British in 2001, this falling according to the decennial census to 45 per cent in 2011 and 37 per cent by 2021.
A 2013 analysis of this phenomenon by Professor Eric Kaufmann — who now leads the Centre for Heterodox Social Science, which published this week’s Goodwin report — stated without further research it couldn’t be said for sure white Britons were leaving London for the “avoidance of ethnic minorities”.
Nevertheless, noting the “dramatic outflow… to other parts of England and Wales”, Kaufmann stated: “In Barking and Dagenham, to take an extreme example, a third of the white British population departed between 2001 and 2011.”
Elsewhere in Britain, the nation’s second city Birmingham and former textile city Leicester are already ‘majority minority’ with white British residents falling to less than half by the time of the last census. It is already the case that a million people in a country of 70 million speak no English.
As things stand, without immigration the British population would be basically static: between 2023 seven million people were born and seven million people died.
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