Marvel’s Thunderbolts* – the asterisk’s meaning now revealed, so spoiler alert that I discuss it below – from director Jake Schreier continues to rule the start of summer movie season, with a sophomore session striking approximately $75 million worldwide in its second weekend at the box office.
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Thunderbolts By The Numbers
Entering its second weekend of summer atop roughly $190 million in global receipts, Thunderbolts* is on track to hit somewhere around $260 million by end of Sunday. The film took $162 million in its bow last weekend, on the low end of estimates but enough to still declare success.
The numbers could climb higher if Marvel/Disney marketing strategy pays off as it might. The asterisk in the title has now been revealed to stand for The New Avengers, so I expect that’ll catch the attention of some portion of the viewership who might’ve otherwise sat out theatrical, at least in these early weekends.
Going forward, TV promo spots and trailers, combined with posters and online marketing, will put The New Avengers titling (although not an official “title change” yet) front and center to generate a whole second wave of buzz. It’s like marketing two different films for the price of one, so to speak, and could cut into the weekend declines.
Thunderbolts And Avengers
I can see a scenario in which Thunderbolts – The New Avengers (or The New Avengers: Thunderbolts, or whatever framing/titling finally settles in over the next couple of weeks) manages a surprise 50% drop of less from its bow last weekend, perhaps landing between $85-90 million in global sales, to climb north of $275 million range.
On the other hand, it’s still early summer and audiences just spent the end of spring driving up theatrical attendance, and are now approaching the summertime main events – Jurassic World: Rebirth, Fantastic Four: First Steps, and Superman. Meanwhile, Memorial Day weekend is just two weeks away, and Lilo & Stitch is shaping up for a huge debut across the four-day frame – expect $125+ million stateside, and north of $250 million worldwide, with only Japan sitting out the first week’s run.
So Thunderbolts* needs to make the most of its New Avengers rebranding to run up the numbers for a couple of weeks, and spend for a large-scale Memorial Day marketing around The New Avengers titling – perhaps even throwing together a teaser shot for Avengers: Doomsday to tack onto the new TV spots as an extra “all roads lead to Doomsday” messaging boost around the Avengers branding.
Of course, Marvel Studios knows their business best, but this feels like an easy pitch to put a lot more extra butts in seats.
Thunderbolts And MCU’s Future
Considering how well audiences and critics are responding to Thunderbolts*, there seems to be potential for a significant overperformance if Memorial Day plays out right, which of course leads to even better anticipation for Fantastic Four in July.
It looks like Thunderbolts – The New Avengers is likely on track for somewhere between $500-600 million, at the moment. We’ll see how much the title adjustment and new marketing around it pays off, and whether it pushes the film into a higher box office tier. If that happens, then I’d guess we’re looking at something higher than $600 million but still lower than $700 million or right on it.
Which is all more than enough to make the studio happy, I’m sure, regardless of which way it turns out. Combined with Julius Onah’s Captain America: Brave New World, Thunderbolts* should help put Marvel Studios over $1 billion at the box office for the year, ahead of Fantastic Four: First Steps, which might get the MCU to $2 billion this year and even put the latter film in contention for a top-3 placement for the year.
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