The results of a public opinion survey recently conducted by Brazilian firm Paraná Pesquisas revealed that conservative former President Jair Bolsonaro — who is currently banned from running for office and potentially facing over 30 years in prison — would defeat radical leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a hypothetical matchup.
The study, released by Paraná Pesquisas on Tuesday, consulted Brazilians from April 16 to 19 on the subject of Brazil’s electoral situation ahead of the 2026 presidential election. It found that, in a prospective presidential runoff scenario, Bolsonaro would obtain 46 percent of the votes and Lula 40.4 percent.
The study also found that, if a first round were to take place right now featuring Bolsonaro, Lula, and four other candidates, Bolsonaro would win with 38.5 percent support and Lula would obtain 33.3 percent of the votes.
Bolsonaro, who narrowly lost to Lula in the controversial 2022 presidential election, was banned by the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), the country’s electoral court, from running for public office through 2030 for questioning the integrity of Brazil’s electoral system in a meeting with foreign diplomats in mid-2022, at a time when he was president of Brazil.
Since he left office in January 2023, Bolsonaro has been the target of several ongoing judicial processes. Most notably, Bolsonaro stands accused by Brazil’s highest court, the Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF), of allegedly conspiring with several dozen others to poison Lula and stage a “coup” to override the results of the 2022 presidential election. If found guilty in the yet-to-be-scheduled trial, Bolsonaro faces up to 39 years in prison if found guilty of all charges — a potential sentence that Bolsonaro stressed in March would mark “the end of [his] life.”
Other processes launched against Bolsonaro after he left office include an ongoing probe into allegations that Bolsonaro misappropriated and sold a set of luxury jewelry he obtained from the government of Saudi Arabia during his presidency and a now-dropped probe that investigated allegations that Bolsonaro purportedly ordered others to create a fraudulent vaccination card showing he had received a coronavirus vaccination product to travel to the United States in December 2022. At the time, the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden maintained strict coronavirus proof of vaccination requirements for foreigners visiting America.
At press time, Bolsonaro is in recovery at the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of the DF Star hospital in Brasília. On April 13, Bolsonaro underwent a complex 12-hour emergency surgery to treat complications following prior surgeries to address the damage from a failed assassination attempt in September 2018.
Bolsonaro said on Tuesday through social media that, for the moment, there is no forecast for his discharge from the ICU. The former president also referred to the results of Paraná Pesquisas’s poll in a separate brief social media message that reads, “One more! Draw your own conclusions.”
Paraná Pesquisas’ study also evaluated other hypothetical scenarios between Lula and other Bolsonaro-affiliated candidates.
In a prospective runoff scenario between Lula and Bolsonaro’s wife and former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, the former First Lady would defeat Lula with 45 percent of the votes against Lula’s 41 percent. CNN Brasil pointed out that polls from February had Lula defeating Michelle Bolsonaro by a nearly seven-point difference.
In another prospective scenario between Lula and the pro-Bolsonaro governor of São Paulo Tarcísio de Freitas, the study found that de Freitas would defeat the current incumbent President with 43.4 percent against Lula’s 40.5 percent.
On Wednesday morning, Paraná Pesquisas released the results of a separate survey that asked Brazilians for their assessment of the current Lula administration.
According to the study, Lula presently has a disapproval rating of 57.4 percent, compared to 39.2 percent of respondents who expressed that they have a positive image of the radical leftist president.
Another 36.7 percent of respondents said that Lula’s government is “terrible” and 11.3 percent of respondents described it as “bad.” Among those who expressed positive sentiments of Lula’s government, 18.8 percent responded that it was “good” and 7.8 percent said it was “excellent.”
The outlet Poder 360 reported on Wednesday morning that the disapproval rating in the results of the study marks Lula’s highest since he took office for a third term in January 2023 and a seven-point increase between January and April 2025.
Christian K. Caruzo is a Venezuelan writer and documents life under socialism. You can follow him on Twitter here.
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